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BAC · Forward model · All Other · NII Guide case

What has to happen in All Other

Model as of

This page changes All Other inside the complete BAC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BAC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $68.34 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue −$822M -2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$14.89B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Alastair Borthwick raised FY2026 NII growth to the upper end of the 6-8% range on the 14 July 2026 call, and full-year operating leverage to 300-400bps. This case pays for that on the lines where the deposit and lending balances actually sit - Consumer Banking and Global Banking take the growth and the operating leverage, GWIM takes half of it, Global Markets takes none. It does NOT assume Global Markets repeats +34%, and it does NOT treat the guided range as a floor: management explicitly conditioned it on 'the current forward curve, which has one 25 basis point rate hike in September', which had not occurred when this model was written. Result: $68.34 a share, 2.33x tangible book.

All Other

Basis quarter−$744M
Final quarter−$822M
Final revenue mix-2%

The residual: asset and liability management results, liquidating businesses and unallocated expense. Revenue is NEGATIVE in all fifteen quarters because ALM results are substantially allocated out to the four operating segments. It is carried as a fifth line exactly as reported so the four segments are never inflated to absorb it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 −$698M Reported
2025 Q4 −$829M Reported
2026 Q1 −$723M Reported
2026 Q2 −$744M Reported
ALM activitiesLiquidating businessesUnallocated expense
Sequential growth +0.5%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% 0.5% QoQ on a negative line, so the drag grows slowly. Anchored to the tight -$698M to -$902M recent cluster.
All Other

Latest: −$822M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2022Q4 −$1.84B
2023Q1 −$1.46B
2023Q2 −$1.77B
2023Q3 −$1.62B
2023Q4 −$3.47B
2024Q1 −$1.64B
2024Q2 −$1.75B
2024Q3 −$2.15B
2024Q4 −$953M
2025Q1 −$694M
2025Q2 −$833M
2025Q3 −$698M
2025Q4 −$829M
2026Q1 −$723M
2026Q2 −$744M
2026Q3E −$748M
2026Q4E −$751M
2027Q1E −$755M
2027Q2E −$759M
2027Q3E −$763M
2027Q4E −$767M
2028Q1E −$770M
2028Q2E −$774M
2028Q3E −$778M
2028Q4E −$782M
2029Q1E −$786M
2029Q2E −$790M
2029Q3E −$794M
2029Q4E −$798M
2030Q1E −$802M
2030Q2E −$806M
2030Q3E −$810M
2030Q4E −$814M
2031Q1E −$818M
2031Q2E −$822M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue is negative in every one of the fifteen quarters, from -$698M to -$3,468M. That is how BAC reports it: ALM results are allocated OUT to the segments, so what remains here is a residual.
  • The 121.2% margin is pre-tax income of -$902M over revenue of -$744M. Both are negative, so the ratio is positive and the product stays a loss of about $900M a quarter, which is the intended behaviour.
  • 2023 Q4 is the outlier at -$3,468M of revenue and -$6,043M of pre-tax, from the FDIC special assessment and the BSBY cessation charge. It is left in history as reported and is not used to set the run rate.
  • capexIntensity is exactly 0 here and nowhere else. A positive intensity on negative revenue would produce a negative capex, which the engine would add to free cash flow as a phantom inflow.
  • Scenario growth and margin deltas are cancelled on this line by an equal and opposite vertical delta, because a group-wide margin cut applied to a negative-revenue residual would make the loss smaller, not larger.
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