← BAC forward model

BAC · Forward model · Global Wealth & Investment Management · Bull case

What has to happen in Global Wealth & Investment Management

Model as of

This page changes Global Wealth & Investment Management inside the complete BAC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BAC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $82.10 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $10.76B 24% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $39.53B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Deposit repricing keeps running, the investment-banking pipeline converts, AUM compounds with markets, Global Markets holds the share gains behind a 17th consecutive quarter of growth, and expense discipline keeps printing the guided 300-400bps of operating leverage. What this case does NOT reach is a 20%-plus ROTCE or JPMorgan's roughly 3.2x tangible book: it gets BAC to about 2.8x, which is a re-rating of the franchise it has, not a re-rating onto its larger peer. Result: $82.10 a share at a 9.25% cost of equity and a 10.5x exit, which is a 13.6x P/E on net income.

Global Wealth & Investment Management

Basis quarter$6.87B
Final quarter$10.76B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix24%

Merrill and the Private Bank. $6,871M of FTE revenue, +16% year over year, on $2.3T of AUM and $4.9T of client balances. Asset management fees are the swing factor and they follow market levels, which makes this a growth line rather than an AUM-times-fee-rate subscription.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.31B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.62B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.71B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.87B Reported
Merrill Wealth ManagementBank of America Private Bank
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 2.0% QoQ, below the 2.4% Q1-to-Q2 print. AUM +17% supports a mid-single-digit sequential.
Global Wealth & Investment Management

Latest: $10.76B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2022Q4 $5.41B
2023Q1 $5.32B
2023Q2 $5.24B
2023Q3 $5.32B
2023Q4 $5.23B
2024Q1 $5.59B
2024Q2 $5.57B
2024Q3 $5.76B
2024Q4 $6.00B
2025Q1 $6.02B
2025Q2 $5.94B
2025Q3 $6.31B
2025Q4 $6.62B
2026Q1 $6.71B
2026Q2 $6.87B
2026Q3E $7.05B
2026Q4E $7.23B
2027Q1E $7.41B
2027Q2E $7.59B
2027Q3E $7.77B
2027Q4E $7.95B
2028Q1E $8.13B
2028Q2E $8.32B
2028Q3E $8.50B
2028Q4E $8.69B
2029Q1E $8.88B
2029Q2E $9.08B
2029Q3E $9.28B
2029Q4E $9.48B
2030Q1E $9.68B
2030Q2E $9.89B
2030Q3E $10.10B
2030Q4E $10.32B
2031Q1E $10.54B
2031Q2E $10.76B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Asset management fees of $4.4B, +19%, are the majority of the line. AUM of $2.3T and client balances of $4.9T are the volume tell, but management fees are not disclosed against a fee rate the engine could charge.
  • The 27.4% margin is pre-tax income of $1,884M over $6,871M of FTE revenue, and it matches the 27% GWIM pre-tax margin ratio disclosed in the 2Q26 deck.
  • Provision is immaterial here at $11M on $6,871M of revenue: GWIM credit risk is securities-based lending, which charges off at about 0.01%. There is no provision cushion to give back in a downturn.
  • Terminal 27.0% holds the disclosed margin rather than expanding it, because the fee base is levered to market levels rather than to an operating-leverage story.
  • Seasonality was tested and rejected: signal 0.0298 against a worst window spread of 0.0497, with Q4 ratios of 0.970, 1.020 and 1.016 showing no stable shape.
BAC model map

Explore another vertical