BAC · Forward model · Consumer Banking · Bull case
What has to happen in Consumer Banking
Model as of
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Consumer Banking
Basis quarter$11.34B
Final quarter$15.79B
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix35%
Deposits, cards, small business and the financial-centre network. $11,336M of FTE revenue in the basis quarter on $957.0B of average deposits and $321.1B of average loans. Neither balances nor card spend are published as a complete priced volume series, so the line is projected as sequential growth on the reported revenue.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$11.17B
Reported
2025 Q4
$11.20B
Reported
2026 Q1
$11.05B
Reported
2026 Q2
$11.34B
Reported
DepositsConsumer lendingCredit cardSmall business
Sequential growth
+1.2%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
1.2% QoQ, the trailing four-quarter average sequential. Not the +4.8% year-over-year headline.
Consumer Banking
Latest: $15.79B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q4 | $10.78B |
| 2023Q1 | $10.71B |
| 2023Q2 | $10.52B |
| 2023Q3 | $10.47B |
| 2023Q4 | $10.33B |
| 2024Q1 | $10.17B |
| 2024Q2 | $10.21B |
| 2024Q3 | $10.42B |
| 2024Q4 | $10.65B |
| 2025Q1 | $10.49B |
| 2025Q2 | $10.81B |
| 2025Q3 | $11.17B |
| 2025Q4 | $11.20B |
| 2026Q1 | $11.05B |
| 2026Q2 | $11.34B |
| 2026Q3E | $11.54B |
| 2026Q4E | $11.75B |
| 2027Q1E | $11.95B |
| 2027Q2E | $12.16B |
| 2027Q3E | $12.37B |
| 2027Q4E | $12.58B |
| 2028Q1E | $12.79B |
| 2028Q2E | $13.00B |
| 2028Q3E | $13.22B |
| 2028Q4E | $13.44B |
| 2029Q1E | $13.66B |
| 2029Q2E | $13.88B |
| 2029Q3E | $14.11B |
| 2029Q4E | $14.34B |
| 2030Q1E | $14.57B |
| 2030Q2E | $14.81B |
| 2030Q3E | $15.05B |
| 2030Q4E | $15.29B |
| 2031Q1E | $15.54B |
| 2031Q2E | $15.79B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than deposits-as-capacity. Average deposits of $957.0B and average loans of $321.1B are disclosed, but BAC publishes no priced volume series the engine could charge a yield on.
- The 38.6% margin is PRE-TAX income, $4,375M, already net of the $1,160M provision for credit losses and of segment noninterest expense. It is not EBITDA and it is not pre-provision profit.
- Consumer carries roughly 85% of the group's credit cost, so this is the line where a consumer credit cycle shows up. Provision has ranged $1,009M to $1,405M over the fifteen quarters, a 39% spread on a line that is 10% of segment revenue.
- Terminal 36.0% takes back 2.6 points for card-credit normalisation off a 0.47% group net charge-off ratio, which the deck itself frames as better than a year ago rather than as a mid-cycle rate.
- Seasonality was tested and rejected: signal 0.0219 against a worst window spread of 0.0145, with the whole amplitude inside plus or minus 1% of revenue.