ASTS · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
AST reports ONE operating segment. The only disclosed revenue split is the two income-statement lines, products and services, and this model uses exactly those as its two live verticals: gateway products and government/engineering services. They sum to reported consolidated revenue in every quarter shown - $0.718m, $1.156m, $14.739m, $54.305m, $14.735m and $31.520m - with 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 derived from the disclosed $7.7m gateway-resale note and the audited FY2025 split, so the derived services line reproduces FY2025 services of $26.529m exactly. Those two quarters are flagged estimated. A third vertical, SpaceMobile Service, is added with explicit estimated zeros through the basis quarter and a two-quarter delay: the company states it has not recognised any SpaceMobile Service revenue and the 2026 beta is explicitly non-commercial. Vertical margins are CONTRIBUTION margins after cost of revenues only; the entire adjusted operating base ($95.9m in the basis quarter), the constellation build and the Ligado payments are carried once each in corporate programmes, so no operating cost is counted twice and no vertical carries constellation capex. The base case does NOT reach FY2026 guidance: it lands near $130m against a guided $150-200m and an FY2026 consensus of $168.5m. That is the model's finding, not a rounding error - only 6.6% of the ~$1.2bn of remaining performance obligations ($79.2m) is expected to be recognised over the next twelve months, so the guided second half depends on new awards being won and recognised inside the same year. Share count is held flat at the 6 August 2026 count across Class A, B and C; the cash burn implied by the programmes almost certainly needs more capital, and that dilution is not modelled.
Government scales the way management describes it while the constellation reaches continuous coverage of key markets and the service prices above the assumed $2.8m a satellite-quarter. Backlog is already ~$1.30bn, over $125m of new US Government awards landed in the basis quarter, and the Rakuten joint venture was preliminarily selected by Japan's MIC for J-LEO with up to ~$1bn of non-dilutive, non-debt government capital. It does not assume the Ligado transaction closes or that spectrum beyond the current authorisations is granted.
Latest: $1.08B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $718,000.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $1M |
| 2025Q3 | $15M |
| 2025Q4 | $54M |
| 2026Q1 | $15M |
| 2026Q2 | $32M |
| 2026Q3E | $39M |
| 2026Q4E | $48M |
| 2027Q1E | $96M |
| 2027Q2E | $138M |
| 2027Q3E | $180M |
| 2027Q4E | $227M |
| 2028Q1E | $276M |
| 2028Q2E | $326M |
| 2028Q3E | $379M |
| 2028Q4E | $432M |
| 2029Q1E | $488M |
| 2029Q2E | $544M |
| 2029Q3E | $602M |
| 2029Q4E | $663M |
| 2030Q1E | $725M |
| 2030Q2E | $789M |
| 2030Q3E | $857M |
| 2030Q4E | $927M |
| 2031Q1E | $1.00B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.08B |
What drives each segment
Gateway products
Units × priceAST resells gateway equipment, software and related services to MNO partners so they can build the ground segment the SpaceMobile Service runs over. It is an infrastructure build-out line, not an annuity: revenue front-loads per market as gateways are delivered and accepted. Thirteen gateways went to seven customers across five continents in the basis quarter against a disclosed footprint of nearly 50 gateways in various stages of completion, installation and planning, so units times realisation is the only honest driver.
Latest: $57M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $375,000.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $50,000.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $8M |
| 2025Q4 | $36M |
| 2026Q1 | $13M |
| 2026Q2 | $24M |
| 2026Q3E | $28M |
| 2026Q4E | $33M |
| 2027Q1E | $38M |
| 2027Q2E | $43M |
| 2027Q3E | $44M |
| 2027Q4E | $45M |
| 2028Q1E | $45M |
| 2028Q2E | $46M |
| 2028Q3E | $47M |
| 2028Q4E | $48M |
| 2029Q1E | $49M |
| 2029Q2E | $49M |
| 2029Q3E | $50M |
| 2029Q4E | $51M |
| 2030Q1E | $52M |
| 2030Q2E | $53M |
| 2030Q3E | $54M |
| 2030Q4E | $55M |
| 2031Q1E | $56M |
| 2031Q2E | $57M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Margin here is contribution after cost of revenues - products only. Q2 2026 was (24,428 - 22,402) / 24,428 = 8.3%, down from 17.5% in Q1 2026 and 25.6% for FY2025 as low-margin gateway resale scaled. The terminal 12% assumes mix shifts toward software attach, not that hardware resale becomes a software business.
- Related-party products revenue was $1.918m in the basis quarter and $9.770m in the first half, sold into SatCo, the 50/50 Vodafone European joint venture. A meaningful slice of this line is therefore sold into a vehicle AST half-owns and resells through under an exclusive reseller agreement.
- One quarter of unit disclosure exists and it came from the earnings call, not from a filing. Delivery timing turns on a small number of customer acceptances, which is what produced the $3.01m Q2 revenue miss against a $34.53m consensus.
Government and engineering services
Growth pathServices revenue is recognised at the point in time when milestones are achieved and accepted by the customer under agreements with the US Government, directly or through prime contractors. Management calls it the fastest-scaling part of the backlog and a recurring multi-billion-dollar-a-year opportunity starting in 2027. No unit count, headcount or contract-value schedule is disclosed and the government share of backlog is deliberately left unquantified, so sequential growth on the filed services line is the only defensible driver.
Latest: $122M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $343,000.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $1M |
| 2025Q3 | $7M |
| 2025Q4 | $18M |
| 2026Q1 | $1M |
| 2026Q2 | $7M |
| 2026Q3E | $11M |
| 2026Q4E | $15M |
| 2027Q1E | $19M |
| 2027Q2E | $24M |
| 2027Q3E | $29M |
| 2027Q4E | $34M |
| 2028Q1E | $39M |
| 2028Q2E | $44M |
| 2028Q3E | $49M |
| 2028Q4E | $54M |
| 2029Q1E | $60M |
| 2029Q2E | $65M |
| 2029Q3E | $71M |
| 2029Q4E | $77M |
| 2030Q1E | $83M |
| 2030Q2E | $90M |
| 2030Q3E | $98M |
| 2030Q4E | $105M |
| 2031Q1E | $114M |
| 2031Q2E | $122M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Cost of revenues - services is only labour and sales commissions, which is why contribution margin is 83.6% in the basis quarter and was 91.8% for FY2025. The real cost of this line is the engineering base - $87.3m of GAAP engineering services costs, $57.2m adjusted, in the basis quarter - and that sits in the corporate operating programme so it is counted once, not twice.
- The 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 points are derived, not reported. Q3 2025 is total revenue $14.739m less the disclosed $7.7m of gateway resale, which agrees with the disclosed ~$7.0m of US Government revenue; Q4 2025 is FY2025 services of $26.529m less the first nine months. Both quarters are flagged estimated.
- A recurring multi-billion-dollar-a-year opportunity starting in 2027 is an aspiration management stated on the call, not guidance and not backlog. Backlog is ~$1.30bn in aggregate contracted revenue and management said only that a minority of it is government, without quantifying the split.
SpaceMobile Service
Capacity × utilisation × priceThe commercial product: MNO partners keep the subscriber and AST supplies the space segment, earning a share of end-customer revenue plus contracted fixed consideration, recognised over the life of the contract beginning when AST provides MNOs access to its satellite network. Nothing has been recognised to date. Satellites in orbit set the capacity ceiling and AST publishes the thresholds - 25 for noncontinuous service, 45 to 60 for continuous coverage of key markets, about 90 for all target markets - so the volume side is disclosed and the price side is not.
Latest: $898M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $38M |
| 2027Q2E | $71M |
| 2027Q3E | $108M |
| 2027Q4E | $148M |
| 2028Q1E | $192M |
| 2028Q2E | $237M |
| 2028Q3E | $283M |
| 2028Q4E | $331M |
| 2029Q1E | $379M |
| 2029Q2E | $430M |
| 2029Q3E | $481M |
| 2029Q4E | $534M |
| 2030Q1E | $589M |
| 2030Q2E | $646M |
| 2030Q3E | $705M |
| 2030Q4E | $766M |
| 2031Q1E | $830M |
| 2031Q2E | $898M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every monetisation input on this line is assumed. AST has never published an ARPU, a wholesale rate, a revenue-share percentage or a subscriber count, and the variable MNO revenue-share consideration is explicitly constrained out of remaining performance obligations because the amount to be received is uncertain. The $2.8m per satellite-quarter comes from management's own goal of approaching $1bn in the first commercial year with government about half of it.
- Satellites in orbit is not the same as usable capacity. The 13 spacecraft include Block 1 and test assets, aggregate usable throughput per market is undisclosed, and commercial service in the United States still needs the remaining Part 25 modification granted. Every other market needs its own regulator. That is what the utilisation glide is standing in for.
- Contract liabilities were $266.9m at 30 June 2026 and include advance consideration for SpaceMobile Service performance obligations, so cash has been collected before any revenue is recognised. European distribution runs through SatCo, the 50/50 Vodafone joint venture, under an exclusive reseller agreement, which is a second party between AST and the end customer.
Where each case comes from
Avellan case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Avellan column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 earnings call, 10 August 2026: the first commercial year
- Aug 10, 2026 Nothing's changed on our expectation and our goal of approaching $1 billion of revenue in our first year of commercial service. Next year, the way to think about it is still a really strong opportunity in government that could contribute to probably as much as half of that.
- Aug 10, 2026 We have 10 launches booked with two different providers, and we're targeting a cadence of every month or two on average.
Q2 2026 business update, 10 August 2026: the constellation and the funding
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | -$1.70B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $3.86B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $2.59B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 9.0x |
| Terminal value | $34.75B |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $20.62B |
| Enterprise value | $18.93B |
| Net cash | -$430M |
| Equity value | $18.50B |
| Shares | 0.39B |
| Fair value per share | $47.53 |
| Against the current price of $61.44 | -23% |
13% for a pre-revenue, single-asset business exposed to launch outcomes and to a regulator in every market it wants to sell in - above a mature satellite operator's cost of capital and below a venture rate, because the constellation is partly built and $3.7bn of pro forma cash is on the balance sheet. The exit is 6.0x trailing-year revenue, below Iridium's 7.45x EV/Sales on the same date, because terminal AST is assumed more capital-hungry and less proven than Iridium; Globalstar's 37.81x is not used as an anchor for anything. The answer moves almost one-for-one with two assumed sliders: revenue per satellite-quarter and the quarter paid service starts. Today's tape is 136x the midpoint of guided 2026 revenue.
Read the other way round: at $61.44 the market is paying 11.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Block 2 constellation build and launch
2026 Q3 → 2028 Q2AST states it is fully funded to manufacture and launch approximately 90 Block 2 satellites at $21-23m of average capital cost each, with initial launches above that range and trending down. Seventy-seven more satellites plus the ground segment is about $2.6bn; spread over eight quarters that is $325m each, against Q3 2026 capex guided to $350-425m and $597.6m actually spent in Q2 2026.
Constellation replenishment and expansion
2028 Q3 → 2031 Q2Block 2 satellites have a finite life and the FCC authorisation covers a 248-satellite network, so deployment does not stop at 90. $120m a quarter from 2028 Q3 is roughly five satellites a quarter at the disclosed unit cost - a replenishment rate, well below the build rate it follows.
Operating cost base through the build
2026 Q3 → 2028 Q2Adjusted operating expenses excluding adjusted cost of revenues were $95.9m in the basis quarter. Engineering and G&A scale with the launch campaign at about 4% a quarter through 2028 Q2, averaging $114.9m. Carried here so the operating base is counted once, outside every vertical margin.
Operating cost base after the build
2028 Q3 → 2031 Q2Overhead flattens once the roughly 90-satellite build completes, but it does not fall: $131.2m a quarter, the level the 4% ramp reaches in 2028 Q2, held flat for the last twelve quarters of the horizon.
Ligado L-band spectrum access
2026 Q3 → 2031 Q2SpectrumCo owes spectrum access usage payments of at least $80.0m a year for the right to use up to 40 MHz of L-band, plus the $30m of consideration not yet paid of the $550m total. $520m has already been paid and the transaction has not closed.
The projected path
| Quarter | Gateway products | Government and engineering services | SpaceMobile Service | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $28M | $11M | $0 | $39M | +164% | $14M | $461M | -$448M | -987 | -$436M |
| 2026 Q4E | $33M | $15M | $0 | $48M | -12% | $18M | $461M | -$444M | -945 | -$421M |
| 2027 Q1E | $38M | $19M | $38M | $96M | — | $35M | $461M | -$426M | — | -$394M |
| 2027 Q2E | $43M | $24M | $71M | $138M | +337% | $55M | $461M | -$406M | +42 | -$366M |
| 2027 Q3E | $44M | $29M | $108M | $180M | +364% | $79M | $461M | -$382M | +152 | -$336M |
| 2027 Q4E | $45M | $34M | $148M | $227M | +377% | $107M | $461M | -$354M | +221 | -$303M |
| 2028 Q1E | $45M | $39M | $192M | $276M | +188% | $138M | $461M | -$323M | +71 | -$269M |
| 2028 Q2E | $46M | $44M | $237M | $326M | +137% | $172M | $461M | -$289M | +49 | -$234M |
| 2028 Q3E | $47M | $49M | $283M | $379M | +110% | $209M | $273M | -$64M | +93 | -$50M |
| 2028 Q4E | $48M | $54M | $331M | $432M | +91% | $248M | $273M | -$25M | +85 | -$19M |
| 2029 Q1E | $49M | $60M | $379M | $488M | +77% | $288M | $273M | $12M | +79 | $9M |
| 2029 Q2E | $49M | $65M | $430M | $544M | +67% | $330M | $273M | $45M | +75 | $33M |
| 2029 Q3E | $50M | $71M | $481M | $602M | +59% | $373M | $273M | $80M | +72 | $57M |
| 2029 Q4E | $51M | $77M | $534M | $663M | +53% | $419M | $273M | $115M | +71 | $80M |
| 2030 Q1E | $52M | $83M | $589M | $725M | +49% | $465M | $273M | $152M | +70 | $103M |
| 2030 Q2E | $53M | $90M | $646M | $789M | +45% | $514M | $273M | $191M | +69 | $126M |
| 2030 Q3E | $54M | $98M | $705M | $857M | +42% | $565M | $273M | $231M | +69 | $148M |
| 2030 Q4E | $55M | $105M | $766M | $927M | +40% | $618M | $273M | $272M | +69 | $170M |
| 2031 Q1E | $56M | $114M | $830M | $1.00B | +38% | $673M | $273M | $316M | +70 | $192M |
| 2031 Q2E | $57M | $122M | $898M | $1.08B | +36% | $730M | $273M | $362M | +70 | $215M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | all | $0.97 | Initial model from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief. Products and services as the two disclosed verticals, SpaceMobile Service added as a delayed capacity line starting 2027 Q1, constellation and operating base carried as corporate programmes. |