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ASTS · Forward model · Government and engineering services · Avellan case

What has to happen in Government and engineering services

Model as of

This page changes Government and engineering services inside the complete ASTS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ASTS forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $130.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $240M 12% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.12B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own stated goal taken literally: approaching $1bn of revenue in the first full year of commercial service with government about half of it, on roughly 45 satellites in early 2027 and a fully funded path to about 90. This case tilts the service line and the government line, it does not move the 2027 Q1 start date, invent a disclosed price, or assume the ~$1.30bn backlog converts faster than the 6.6% of RPO the company says it will recognise in twelve months. It also does not fund itself: the capital programmes still spend, and the extra revenue does not close the cash gap inside the horizon.

Government and engineering services

Basis quarter$7M
Final quarter$240M
Implied CAGR+102%
Final revenue mix12%

Services revenue is recognised at the point in time when milestones are achieved and accepted by the customer under agreements with the US Government, directly or through prime contractors. Management calls it the fastest-scaling part of the backlog and a recurring multi-billion-dollar-a-year opportunity starting in 2027. No unit count, headcount or contract-value schedule is disclosed and the government share of backlog is deliberately left unquantified, so sequential growth on the filed services line is the only defensible driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $7M Estimated
2025 Q4 $18M Estimated
2026 Q1 $1M Reported
2026 Q2 $7M Reported
US Government milestone completions, direct and via prime contractorsNon-communications and secure-communications programmes
Sequential growth +45.0%/qtr decaying toward +5.0% 45% into 2026 Q3. Over $125m of new US Government awards landed in the quarter and revenue is milestone-recognised.
Government and engineering services

Latest: $240M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $343,000.00
2025Q2 $1M
2025Q3 $7M
2025Q4 $18M
2026Q1 $1M
2026Q2 $7M
2026Q3E $11M
2026Q4E $16M
2027Q1E $21M
2027Q2E $27M
2027Q3E $34M
2027Q4E $41M
2028Q1E $49M
2028Q2E $57M
2028Q3E $66M
2028Q4E $76M
2029Q1E $86M
2029Q2E $97M
2029Q3E $110M
2029Q4E $123M
2030Q1E $138M
2030Q2E $155M
2030Q3E $173M
2030Q4E $193M
2031Q1E $215M
2031Q2E $240M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Cost of revenues - services is only labour and sales commissions, which is why contribution margin is 83.6% in the basis quarter and was 91.8% for FY2025. The real cost of this line is the engineering base - $87.3m of GAAP engineering services costs, $57.2m adjusted, in the basis quarter - and that sits in the corporate operating programme so it is counted once, not twice.
  • The 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 points are derived, not reported. Q3 2025 is total revenue $14.739m less the disclosed $7.7m of gateway resale, which agrees with the disclosed ~$7.0m of US Government revenue; Q4 2025 is FY2025 services of $26.529m less the first nine months. Both quarters are flagged estimated.
  • A recurring multi-billion-dollar-a-year opportunity starting in 2027 is an aspiration management stated on the call, not guidance and not backlog. Backlog is ~$1.30bn in aggregate contracted revenue and management said only that a minority of it is government, without quantifying the split.
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