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AMD · Forward model · Embedded · Su Double case

What has to happen in Embedded

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This page changes Embedded inside the complete AMD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $2,247.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.00B 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $11.35B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Lisa Su on the 4 August 2026 call: data center segment revenue to more than double year-over-year in 2027. FY2026 Data Center on the base path is already in the high-$20Bs; a 2027 double is north of $50B. This case pays for that on the same four lines, without inventing an Instinct sub-segment. It does not claim the 2 GW Anthropic or 6 GW Meta figures are contracted revenue.

Embedded

Basis quarter$977M
Final quarter$3.00B
Implied CAGR+25%
Final revenue mix2%

Xilinx FPGAs, embedded CPUs and adaptive SoCs. $977M in the basis quarter, +19% year over year, 39.5% segment operating margin. The recovery after 2025 customer-inventory digestion. A disclosed reportable segment with its own operating profit, unlike the Client/Gaming sub-lines.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $857M Reported
2025 Q4 $950M Reported
2026 Q1 $873M Reported
2026 Q2 $977M Reported
Versal and other adaptive SoCsEmbedded CPUs and APUsKria SOMs and industrial, auto and A&D FPGAs
Sequential growth +8.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 8% QoQ. Q1-to-Q2 was +12% off a weak Q1; 8% holds the recovery without repeating the jump.
Embedded

Latest: $3.00B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $823M
2025Q2 $824M
2025Q3 $857M
2025Q4 $950M
2026Q1 $873M
2026Q2 $977M
2026Q3E $1.07B
2026Q4E $1.15B
2027Q1E $1.24B
2027Q2E $1.33B
2027Q3E $1.42B
2027Q4E $1.50B
2028Q1E $1.59B
2028Q2E $1.68B
2028Q3E $1.78B
2028Q4E $1.87B
2029Q1E $1.97B
2029Q2E $2.07B
2029Q3E $2.17B
2029Q4E $2.27B
2030Q1E $2.38B
2030Q2E $2.50B
2030Q3E $2.61B
2030Q4E $2.74B
2031Q1E $2.87B
2031Q2E $3.00B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Highest-margin disclosed segment and the smallest. Segment operating income $386M is 39.5% of $977M, published, not assumed. Terminal 40% holds that franchise rather than expanding it.
  • FY2025 Embedded was down 3% on customer inventory. Q2 2026 +19% is digestion ending. Opening 8% is below the Q1-to-Q2 jump on purpose.
  • Physical AI (Kria, Ryzen AI Embedded X100) is a content mix inside this line, not a fifth vertical. AMD has not published a robotics revenue series.
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