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What has to happen in Client

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This page changes Client inside the complete AMD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $2,247.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.78B 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $11.37B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Lisa Su on the 4 August 2026 call: data center segment revenue to more than double year-over-year in 2027. FY2026 Data Center on the base path is already in the high-$20Bs; a 2027 double is north of $50B. This case pays for that on the same four lines, without inventing an Instinct sub-segment. It does not claim the 2 GW Anthropic or 6 GW Meta figures are contracted revenue.

Client

Basis quarter$3.06B
Final quarter$7.78B
Implied CAGR+21%
Final revenue mix5%

Ryzen CPUs for notebooks and desktops. $3.06B in the basis quarter, +23% year over year and +6% sequential. A PC-cycle line with share gains, disclosed every quarter inside Client and Gaming. Operating income is not split from Gaming, so the 16% margin is an assumption about mix.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.80B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.10B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.88B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.06B Reported
Ryzen desktop and mobile processorsRyzen AI / Copilot+ PCsChipsets
Sequential growth +6.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 6% QoQ, matching Q1-to-Q2. Holds that pace into a seasonally stronger PC half rather than extrapolating 23% YoY.
Client

Latest: $7.78B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $2.29B
2025Q2 $2.50B
2025Q3 $2.80B
2025Q4 $3.10B
2026Q1 $2.88B
2026Q2 $3.06B
2026Q3E $3.28B
2026Q4E $3.49B
2027Q1E $3.70B
2027Q2E $3.90B
2027Q3E $4.11B
2027Q4E $4.32B
2028Q1E $4.52B
2028Q2E $4.74B
2028Q3E $4.95B
2028Q4E $5.17B
2029Q1E $5.40B
2029Q2E $5.63B
2029Q3E $5.87B
2029Q4E $6.11B
2030Q1E $6.37B
2030Q2E $6.63B
2030Q3E $6.90B
2030Q4E $7.19B
2031Q1E $7.48B
2031Q2E $7.78B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Client and Gaming operating income is $582M, 15.2% of the combined $3,841M. Client is 80% of that revenue. 16% is the blend plus a point, an assumption, not a disclosure.
  • Q4 2025 $3,097M is combined Client-and-Gaming $3,940M from the Q1 2026 slides less disclosed Gaming $843M. IR printed Client as a record $3.1 billion.
  • Opening 6% is the trailing sequential rate, not the 23% year-over-year print. A reader who thinks AI PCs are a new cycle should take the slider up; a reader who thinks Q2 was a catch-up should take it down.
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