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AMD · Forward model · Data Center · Bull case

What has to happen in Data Center

Model as of

This page changes Data Center inside the complete AMD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,021.57 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $57.05B 83% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $139.77B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Helios ramps on schedule at Anthropic, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle. Data Center keeps a high sequential rate into 2027, mix lifts margin a few points, and the multiple holds a duration premium versus a generic semiconductor. What this case does NOT reach is Su's year-over-year double as a 2027 print — that is the named case.

Data Center

Basis quarter$6.72B
Final quarter$57.05B
Implied CAGR+53%
Final revenue mix83%

EPYC server CPUs and Instinct GPUs, now sold increasingly as Helios racks. 58% of the basis quarter, up 107% year over year. What paces it is packaging, HBM and customer-site power, none of which AMD publishes as a unit or megawatt series, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported segment. Lisa Su's 2027 double is the named case, not the opening rate.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.29B Estimated
2025 Q4 $5.38B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.78B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.72B Reported
EPYC server CPUsInstinct GPUs — MI350 now, MI400/MI450 nextHelios rack-scale systemsPensando DPUs, AI NICs, data-center FPGAs
Sequential growth +18.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% 18% QoQ. Q1-to-Q2 was +16%; Hu said DC accelerates in H2. 18% plus the other lines hits the $13.0B Q3 midpoint.
Data Center

Latest: $57.05B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $3.67B
2025Q2 $3.24B
2025Q3 $4.29B
2025Q4 $5.38B
2026Q1 $5.78B
2026Q2 $6.72B
2026Q3E $8.24B
2026Q4E $9.89B
2027Q1E $11.63B
2027Q2E $13.45B
2027Q3E $15.36B
2027Q4E $17.34B
2028Q1E $19.40B
2028Q2E $21.54B
2028Q3E $23.76B
2028Q4E $26.07B
2029Q1E $28.49B
2029Q2E $31.01B
2029Q3E $33.67B
2029Q4E $36.46B
2030Q1E $39.41B
2030Q2E $42.53B
2030Q3E $45.84B
2030Q4E $49.35B
2031Q1E $53.08B
2031Q2E $57.05B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver rather than units, and that is the honest answer. AMD publishes no GPU shipments, no Helios rack count and no ASP. Backing out a rack at an assumed $2-3M would look like the Nvidia model and would be fiction: even the customer GW headlines (Anthropic 2 GW, Meta 6 GW) are not a disclosed MW series.
  • Opening 18% is the Q3 guide, not the trailing 16%. Combined with Client +6%, Gaming flat and Embedded +8% it prints $13.0B, the midpoint of $12.7-13.3B. Jean Hu said Data Center sales accelerate in the second half; this is that, not Su's 2027 double.
  • Segment operating margin 31.3% ($2,103M on $6,718M). Q2 2025 was −$155M because of $800M of MI308 China-export charges, so the year-ago margin is not a base. Terminal 34% is a few points of Instinct mix, not a walk to Nvidia 70%.
  • Q3 2025 $4,289M is the $11M remainder after subtracting the IR-rounded Client, Gaming and Embedded lines from consolidated $9,246M. IR printed Data Center as $4.3 billion.
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