Vistra joins the tracked set today with fourteen quarters of filed history behind it, eighteen days after it reported the June quarter. Revenue was $4,017 million, down 5.5% year over year. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.76 against $0.81. Free cash flow — operating cash flow less capital expenditure — was $334 million. The shares closed at $135.66.
Put growth and free-cash-flow margin together and the June quarter scores 2.8. The March quarter scored 49.0. Nothing about the fleet changed in between.
The score, quarter by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY growth | FCF | FCF margin | R40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q1 | $3,054M | −31.0% | −$153M | −5.0% | −36.0 |
| 2024 Q2 | $3,845M | +20.6% | $698M | +18.2% | 38.7 |
| 2024 Q3 | $6,288M | +53.9% | $1,017M | +16.2% | 70.1 |
| 2024 Q4 | $4,037M | +31.2% | $923M | +22.9% | 54.0 |
| 2025 Q1 | $3,933M | +28.8% | −$169M | −4.3% | 24.5 |
| 2025 Q2 | $4,250M | +10.5% | −$118M | −2.8% | 7.8 |
| 2025 Q3 | $4,971M | −20.9% | $1,009M | +20.3% | −0.6 |
| 2025 Q4 | $4,584M | +13.5% | $596M | +13.0% | 26.6 |
| 2026 Q1 | $5,640M | +43.4% | $316M | +5.6% | 49.0 |
| 2026 Q2 | $4,017M | −5.5% | $334M | +8.3% | 2.8 |
A 106-point range. Both inputs are volatile for the same underlying reason and neither swing describes an operating change.
Revenue. Vistra sells power into ERCOT, PJM, MISO, ISO-NE and the West, and marks its hedges through the income statement. Operating revenues therefore carry unrealised derivative gains and losses alongside the electricity. The company said as much in its own FY2025 numbers: net income of $944 million included an $808 million unrealised loss on hedges expected to settle in future years. A line item that can move the bottom line by more than 85% is not a growth rate.
Free cash flow. Merchant power collects seasonally and spends counter-seasonally. Every Q1 in the series is negative or near it — −$153M, −$169M, +$316M — because that is when collateral, outages and the annual capex ramp land. Every Q3 and Q4 is strongly positive. The quarterly FCF margin is a calendar artefact before it is a quality signal.
The trailing read
Over the four quarters to June 2026, revenue was $19,212 million against $18,508 million — growth of 3.8%. Free cash flow was $2,255 million, a 11.7% margin. The trailing Rule of 40 is 15.5.
That is the honest number for Vistra today, and it is a long way from what the equity is priced on. Twenty analysts polled by S&P Global carry a Strong Buy consensus and a $217.84 average target against a $135.66 close — roughly 60% upside, on a $106 to $313 range. On trailing GAAP EPS of $5.92 the stock trades at 22.9x.
What the score cannot see yet
The reason to own Vistra in 2026 is not the trailing four quarters. It is contracted nuclear:
- 9 January 2026 — 20-year PPAs with Meta covering 2,609 MW across Perry, Davis-Besse and Beaver Valley: 2,176 MW of operating generation plus 433 MW of uprates, the largest nuclear uprates supported by a corporate customer in the US. Deliveries begin late 2026, reach full operating volume by year-end 2027, and the uprate volumes phase in from 2031.
- A 20-year AWS agreement for up to 1,200 MW of carbon-free power at Comanche Peak, signed in 2025.
- 5 January 2026 — the acquisition of Cogentrix Energy and its 5,496 MW gas fleet at a net ~$4.0 billion: ~$2.3B cash, 5 million shares struck at $185, and ~$1.5B of assumed debt, less ~$0.7B of tax benefits. Expected to close mid-to-late 2026. The 2,600-MW Lotus portfolio closed in November 2025.
None of that is in the June quarter's revenue. Guidance for 2026 ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA is $6.8 to $7.6 billion against $5.912 billion realised in 2025, and it excludes any Cogentrix contribution. Adjusted free cash flow before growth is guided to $3.925 to $4.725 billion.
Meanwhile capital expenditure has been climbing ahead of the contracts: $2,866 million over the trailing four quarters against $2,573 million the year before, and $1,676 million for calendar 2023. The spend is committed; the contracted revenue starts arriving at the end of this year.
Gross margin is the steadier line
Vistra's cost of revenue is fuel, purchased power costs and delivery fees. Netting it against operating revenues gives a margin that behaves far better than either R40 input:
| 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 53.6% | 52.3% | 49.6% | 55.1% | 55.8% |
Fuel and purchased power fell to $1,774 million in the June quarter from $1,974 million a year earlier — a bigger drop than the revenue decline, which is why margin rose 2.3 points on falling revenue. Cheap gas is doing some of the work the AI contracts are supposed to do later.
What to watch
- First deliveries under the Meta PPAs, expected late 2026. This is the point at which contracted nuclear starts showing up in revenue rather than in press releases.
- Whether Cogentrix closes on schedule. Guidance excludes it. A mid-to-late 2026 close resets the 2027 base by roughly 5.5 GW of gas.
- Q1 2027 free cash flow. Three of the last four first quarters were negative or barely positive. If the contracted book changes that seasonality, the trailing R40 moves for a real reason.
- The gap between GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA. FY2025 was $944 million of net income against $5,912 million of ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA. Most of the difference is depreciation, interest and hedge marks — and the hedge marks are the part that reverses.
Notes on the data
Every figure above is from Vistra's SEC filings. Quarterly revenue, EPS, operating cash flow and capital expenditure come from the 10-Qs and, for fourth quarters, from the 10-K less the nine-month year-to-date figure. Gross margin is operating revenues less fuel, purchased power costs and delivery fees, taken from the face of the statements of operations. EPS is GAAP diluted throughout — Vistra's headline metrics are non-GAAP, and mixing the two would break the series. No price-to-earnings series is published for VST because the quarter-by-quarter GAAP denominator crosses zero repeatedly and the resulting multiples would be meaningless.
