Snowflake reports the second quarter of fiscal 2027 — the three months ended 31 July 2026 — after the US close on Wednesday 2 September 2026, with the call at 2 p.m. Pacific. The company confirmed the date and slot on 3 August. Consensus is $0.45 of non-GAAP earnings per share and $1.48 billion of revenue, press-reported from third-party estimate feeds.
Take the revenue number apart and there is almost nothing in it that Snowflake has not already told the market. The company guided second-quarter product revenue to $1,415–1,420 million. Professional services and other — the only other line it reports — has run between $54.5 million and $57.4 million in each of the last four quarters. Add the two and you are at $1,470–1,478 million. The Street's $1.48 billion is the guide.
The points
- The consensus implies a product-revenue beat of about half a percent. Back out services at its recent range and $1.48 billion of total revenue leaves $1,422.6–1,425.5 million of product revenue, $5.1 to $8.0 million above the guided midpoint of $1,417.5 million. The subtraction is ours.
- Snowflake has beaten its own product-revenue guide by 2.4% to 5.5% in each of the last four quarters — $30.9 million, $29.1 million, $53.0 million and, in April, $69.8 million. Every figure is the company's own guide against its own print.
- A repeat of the four-quarter average would put product revenue near $1,473 million and total revenue near $1,530 million, about 3% above consensus. That is arithmetic on the past, not a forecast.
- The July quarter is Snowflake's cash trough, every year. Free cash flow was $58.2 million in the July 2025 quarter — a 5.1% margin — against $765.0 million and 59.6% in the January quarter that followed.
- So the Rule of 40 is about to look weak for reasons that are not operating. Consensus revenue growth of 29.3% plus a repeat of last July's 5.1% cash margin scores 34.4, against the 50.2 the April quarter printed. Ours, on the consensus and last year's margin.
- Remaining performance obligations fell $560 million sequentially in April, from $9.77 billion at 31 January to $9.21 billion, which was still 38% higher than a year before. It is the disclosure the bear case in our model leans on hardest.
- The full-year adjusted free cash flow margin guide is 23.0%, two points below the 25% delivered in fiscal 2026 — management's own acknowledgement that AI workloads cost more to serve.
- Only the most aggressive case in our forward model reaches the price. Bear $107.25, base $193.27, bull $273.31, control plane $325.19, against $331.43 at the 31 August close.
The consensus is the guide
The bars above this article stack each quarter's guided product revenue with the amount Snowflake actually delivered on top of it. Four dark slivers, then one that is barely there.
| Quarter | Guide (midpoint) | Reported | Beat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 (Jul 2025) | $1,037.5M | $1,090.5M | +5.1% |
| Q3 FY2026 (Oct 2025) | $1,127.5M | $1,158.4M | +2.7% |
| Q4 FY2026 (Jan 2026) | $1,197.5M | $1,226.6M | +2.4% |
| Q1 FY2027 (Apr 2026) | $1,264.5M | $1,334.3M | +5.5% |
| Q2 FY2027 (Jul 2026) | $1,417.5M | consensus implies ~$1,424M | +0.5% |
Every guide and every reported figure is Snowflake's own. The last row is ours: total consensus revenue less the professional-services line at its recent run rate.
This is where the quarter is decided, and it is worth being precise about what it does and does not mean. A consensus that sits on the guide is not a bearish forecast. It is what happens when a company guides a number, beats it by two to five points every quarter, and the published estimate feeds nevertheless anchor on the guide — so the "beat" that gets reported on Wednesday night is arithmetic that was available in May. What would be genuinely new information is a print inside the guided range, which Snowflake has not delivered in the tracked window.
The same logic does not carry to the earnings line. Consensus of $0.45 is 28.6% above the $0.35 Snowflake reported for the July quarter a year ago and 15.4% above the $0.39 it reported in April, both on the company's non-GAAP diluted measure. Snowflake gives no quarterly EPS guide at all — it guides product revenue, a non-GAAP operating margin of 12.5%, and a diluted share count of 375 million. The per-share consensus is the Street's own construction, and it is the one number here with no company figure behind it.
Neither is comparable to what this site stores. Snowflake's GAAP diluted loss was $0.86 in April and $0.89 in the July quarter a year ago; the non-GAAP line adds back stock compensation, amortisation and a long-term tax rate, and it uses a share count 30 million higher. A percentage computed across the two bases is not a surprise, it is a category error.
The quarter that always looks worst on cash
Snowflake bills consumption but invoices capacity in advance, and the commitments land in the fiscal fourth quarter. The consequence for a site that scores companies on growth plus cash margin is mechanical and it repeats:
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Free cash flow | FCF margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 Q2 (Jul 2025) | $1,145.0M | +31.8% | $58.2M | 5.1% |
| FY2026 Q4 (Jan 2026) | $1,283.9M | +30.1% | $765.0M | 59.6% |
| FY2027 Q1 (Apr 2026) | $1,391.0M | +33.5% | $232.8M | 16.7% |
All three rows are as Snowflake reported them. We wrote about the swing when Snowflake joined coverage; the July print is the low end of it arriving on schedule. The number to read instead is the full-year adjusted free cash flow margin guide — 23.0% for fiscal 2027 against 25% delivered in fiscal 2026 — because that one is annual and therefore free of the seasonality.
What the print does to our model
Our Snowflake model, published 27 August, carries a base fair value of $193.27 a share. Against the 31 August close of $331.43 that is 42% below the market, and the gap is not a rounding of assumptions — it is one assumption. The base case exits the twenty-quarter horizon at 9.0 times revenue; the market is currently paying about 17.6 times forward sales. Nothing Snowflake reports on Wednesday changes that multiple, so the print will not move the base case much.
What it can move is which case is live. The four cases are ours, and they are separated by growth and margin deltas rather than by mood:
| Case | Fair value | vs $331.43 |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $107.25 | −68% |
| Base | $193.27 | −42% |
| Bull | $273.31 | −18% |
| Control plane | $325.19 | −2% |
The bear case is anchored on Snowflake's own guidance: the raised full-year product revenue guide of $5,840 million with the second quarter at $1,415–1,420 million implies about 29.5% second-half growth against the 34% printed in April. That is the specific claim Wednesday tests. A print near $1,474 million with the full-year guide raised again would say the implied deceleration was conservatism, as it has been in each of the last two guides. A print inside the range with the full year left alone would say it was a forecast.
The control-plane case is the CEO's stated destination priced literally — that Snowflake becomes the control plane for what he calls the Agentic Enterprise and first-party AI pulls platform consumption behind it. It is a thesis of ours built on a claim of his, not guidance: Snowflake has no revenue, margin or customer target in force beyond fiscal 2027. It is also the only one of the four that reaches today's price, and it needs 12 times exit revenue to do it.
What to watch
- Product revenue against the $1,415–1,420 million guide, and against the ~$1,424 million the consensus implies. A beat in the historical 2.4–5.5% band is roughly $1,451–1,496 million; anything inside the guided range would be the first in the tracked window.
- The full-year product revenue guide, currently $5,840 million. Raised again, the implied 29.5% second-half deceleration was conservatism. Left alone after a beat, it becomes a forecast — and it is the anchor of the bear case in our model.
- Free cash flow against $58.2 million and a 5.1% margin in the July quarter a year ago, and the full-year adjusted margin against the guided 23.0%. The quarterly figure will look bad; the annual guide is the one that carries information.
- Remaining performance obligations against $9.21 billion. They fell $560 million sequentially in April while still growing 38% year over year, and they are the only forward volume disclosure Snowflake publishes.
- Net revenue retention against 126%, and the count of customers above $1 million against 779. Retention rose for the first time in four quarters in April; whether that was the AI attach or one large renewal is not something the release will separate.
- What management says about AI and Cortex demand on the call. Snowflake discloses no AI revenue line, so the only evidence is the commentary — how many customers are using its AI features weekly, and whether that usage is showing up in consumption. Words, not a number, and read them as such.
Snowflake reports the quarter ended 31 July 2026 after the US close on Wednesday 2 September 2026, with the call at 2 p.m. Pacific; the company announced the date on 3 August 2026. Consensus of $0.45 per share and $1.48 billion of revenue is press-reported from third-party estimate feeds as of 2 September 2026 on a non-GAAP basis — Zacks, TipRanks and Yahoo agree on the per-share figure, and Yahoo's average of about 40 analysts gives the revenue figure inside a $1.47 to $1.53 billion range — and is not a series this site stores or verifies; a separately press-reported product-revenue consensus of roughly $1.4 billion, up about 30%, was cited on 31 August. All guidance and all reported figures here — product and total revenue, the per-share lines on both bases, free cash flow, adjusted free cash flow margin, remaining performance obligations, retention and customer counts — are Snowflake's own, from its quarterly results releases of 27 May 2026 and the four quarters before it. Ours rather than the company's: the implied product revenue inside the consensus, the guide-versus-print beat percentages, the Rule of 40 figures, and the fair values, exit multiples and cases in our Snowflake model of 27 August 2026, which are assumptions and not company forecasts. The price of $331.43 is the 31 August 2026 close; a live quote will differ.
