Sandisk has become one of the wildest rides in the AI infrastructure trade. The NAND flash memory maker — spun off from Western Digital as an independent public company on February 24, 2025 — has gone from a sleepy storage supplier to a datacenter-demand darling, only to shed more than half its market value in the space of a month. With Sandisk set to report fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results on August 5, 2026, this is a preview of where the story stands: a genuinely record-breaking last reported quarter, an aggressive next-quarter guide, and a stock whose valuation now hinges entirely on whether NAND pricing holds.
The Headline Numbers (Last Reported Quarter: Fiscal Q3 2026)
| Metric | Fiscal Q3 2026 (ended Apr 3, 2026) | vs. Estimate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.95B | ~$3.29B consensus | Beat, +251% YoY, +97% QoQ |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $23.41 | ~$14.66 | Beat by ~60% |
| GAAP net income | $3.62B ($23.03/share diluted) | — | — |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 78.4% | — | +55.7 pts YoY |
| Datacenter segment revenue | $1.47B | — | +645% YoY |
| Fiscal Q4 2026 guidance | $7.75B–$8.25B revenue; $30.00–$33.00 non-GAAP EPS | — | Reports Aug 5, 2026 |
Sandisk's four quarters as a standalone company have each beaten estimates and accelerated sequentially: fiscal Q4 2025 revenue of $1.90 billion (Aug 2025) grew to $2.31 billion in fiscal Q1 2026 (Nov 2025), $3.03 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 (Jan 2026), and $5.95 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (Apr 2026) — a roughly threefold increase in six months.
CEO David Goeckeler described the quarter as a turning point: "This quarter marks a fundamental inflection point for Sandisk — where our technology leadership is enabling a deliberate shift in our mix toward the highest-value end markets, led by Datacenter... For the first time, data centers are expected to become the largest market for NAND in 2026." He also pointed to a broader shift in the business model itself, disclosing roughly $42 billion in new long-term supply agreements ("New Business Model" contracts) that lock in multi-year pricing and volume commitments with major customers — a structural change management argues should make earnings power more durable, not just cyclically higher.
Why the Stock Round-Tripped
Sandisk's post-spinoff run is one of the more remarkable moves in this AI cycle: shares were up more than 1,000% at their peak, hitting roughly $2,354 around June 22, 2026. Then, over about 25 trading days, the stock fell approximately 55%, dropping into the $1,080–$1,120 range before a sharp 26% single-day rally on July 30 brought shares back to $1,279.96.
The selloff wasn't triggered by a bad print — it happened between earnings reports, driven by a shift in sentiment around the durability of NAND pricing:
- NAND spot-price concerns. Investors began pricing in the risk that the extraordinary pricing gains behind Sandisk's 78%+ gross margins could partially reverse as supply catches up with demand.
- Rising competition. Reports that Chinese NAND manufacturer YMTC could exceed 14% global market share by early 2027, alongside capacity expansion plans that could more than double its output, raised fears of medium-term price competition alongside incumbents Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia.
- Valuation and rate jitters. Broader Fed commentary about stretched technology valuations accelerated selling across the semiconductor and memory complex, hitting Micron, Kioxia, SK Hynix, and AMD alongside Sandisk.
- A high bar. After a run that priced in near-flawless execution, some investors read merely "in line" datapoints as disappointing relative to the most bullish scenarios — a dynamic we've also seen play out at other AI-infrastructure-adjacent names this earnings season.
The AI Memory Angle
Sandisk's story is the NAND-flash counterpart to the DRAM and HBM memory tightness we've tracked as a distinct AI capex spending category. Just as GPU and custom-ASIC suppliers are capturing hyperscaler capex dollars, memory makers are capturing a parallel wave of spend as AI training and inference workloads demand ever-larger amounts of high-capacity, high-performance storage. Goeckeler tied this directly to the mechanics of modern AI systems: growth is coming "not just in model size, but in resulting token generation, the duration and complexity of model runs and the increasing importance of context" — all of which require more datacenter storage capacity per workload. That demand backdrop is real and structural; the open question the market is now wrestling with is how much of the resulting pricing power is durable versus cyclical.
What to Watch
- Fiscal Q4 2026 results on August 5, 2026 — whether Sandisk hits its guided $7.75B–$8.25B revenue and $30.00–$33.00 non-GAAP EPS range, and whether gross margin holds near 78%.
- Sandisk's Investor Day on August 13, 2026 — likely to address the durability of the "New Business Model" long-term supply contracts and give a clearer multi-year framework for margins.
- NAND spot pricing trends — any signs of price stabilization or renewed weakness will likely be the single biggest driver of the stock in the near term, more than the headline revenue growth rate itself.
- Chinese NAND capacity additions (YMTC and others) — the pace of new supply entering the market is the main medium-term risk to Sandisk's pricing power.
- Whether the July 30 rally marks a bottom or is a bounce within a larger correction, given how sharply sentiment has swung in both directions over the past two months.
The Bottom Line
Sandisk's underlying business has been genuinely transformed by AI-driven datacenter demand: revenue has roughly tripled in two quarters, margins have expanded dramatically, and management has locked in tens of billions of dollars in long-term supply commitments. None of that changed in July — what changed was the market's willingness to pay an ever-higher multiple for it. With the stock still up dramatically since its 2025 spinoff despite the recent plunge, and with consensus analyst ratings still a firm Buy (targets ranging from roughly $1,800 to over $2,200, with Bernstein at $3,000), the August 5 report and August 13 Investor Day will be the next real tests of whether Sandisk's AI-memory boom is a durable structural shift or a cyclical spike that's already priced in.
Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) last reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $5.95B (+251% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $23.41, both well ahead of consensus. The company reports fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results on August 5, 2026, having guided to $7.75B–$8.25B revenue and $30.00–$33.00 non-GAAP EPS. Shares closed at $1,279.96 on July 30, 2026, up 26% on the day but still roughly 45% below their June 2026 peak.