Supermicro reports fiscal Q4 2026 — the June quarter, and the close of its fiscal year — after the market close on Tuesday, August 11, with the call at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Unusually, the headline numbers are already partly public. On July 21 the company filed an 8-K with a preliminary business update — we covered it at the time — and it contained three things:
- Revenue near the low end of the $11.0–12.5B guidance range.
- GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 15% to 17% — against guidance of 8.2% to 8.4%, attributed to "a favorable customer and product mix."
- Backlog at record levels, with more than $60 billion of new orders received during the quarter.
A company that misses its own revenue range and doubles its own margin range in the same paragraph has told you its business changed shape, not just its numbers.
The important consequence for tonight is that the good news is already in the price. Shares rose as much as 20–25% on July 21. Tonight is not the market learning about the margin — it is the market finding out whether the audited numbers support what it already paid for three weeks ago.
What the pre-announcement is worth
Take the two disclosures together. At $11.0B of revenue, the guided 8.3% midpoint margin implies about $0.91B of gross profit. At 15–17% it implies $1.65–1.87B.
| Q4 FY2026 scenario | Revenue | Gross margin | Gross profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| As guided in May | $11.0B | 8.3% | $0.91B |
| Preliminary, low end | $11.0B | 15% | $1.65B |
| Preliminary, high end | $11.5B | 17% | $1.96B |
| Prior year (FY2025 Q4, actual) | $5.76B | 9.45% | $0.54B |
So the revenue shortfall against the top of the range costs something on the order of $1.5B of sales, and the margin surprise adds roughly $0.74–1.00B of gross profit against the same revenue. Gross profit looks set to come in at three to three and a half times the prior-year quarter on roughly double the revenue.
For a company whose entire bear case has been that it sells AI servers at commodity margins, a 15–17% print is the most important number in the release — if it holds through the audit, and if it repeats.
Why the estimates are all over the place
That pre-announcement scrambled the models. Third-party consensus for tonight currently spans:
| Source of estimate | Revenue | EPS |
|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg consensus (as reported) | $11.2B | $1.33 adjusted |
| Zacks-style consensus (as reported) | $11.55B | $0.96 |
| Investing.com consensus (as reported) | $11.73B | $0.71 |
An $0.62 spread on EPS — the high estimate is 87% above the low one — is not normal for a large-cap the night of a print. Two things are driving it.
The first is the pre-announcement itself, which moved revenue and margin in opposite directions and forced every model to be rebuilt mid-quarter.
The second is that the estimates are probably not all on the same basis. Supermicro's Street consensus is normally quoted non-GAAP: last quarter it delivered non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.84 against a $0.62 consensus, while the GAAP diluted figure we store was $0.72. A 12-cent GAAP-to-non-GAAP gap at that revenue level explains a meaningful part of a 62-cent spread, and the sources above do not all state which basis they are on. Read any "beat" tonight against the basis it was set on, not the headline.
We do not hold consensus data of our own; the figures above are third-party and are quoted as a range precisely because they do not agree.
The record going in
From our stored Supermicro series (fiscal quarters, June year-end):
| Quarter | Revenue | Revenue YoY | Diluted EPS | Gross margin | FCF | R40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Q3 | $4.60B | +19.5% | $0.17 | 9.57% | $0.59B | 32.4 |
| FY2025 Q4 | $5.76B | +7.5% | $0.31 | 9.45% | $0.84B | 22.1 |
| FY2026 Q1 | $5.02B | −15.5% | $0.26 | 9.31% | −$0.95B | −34.4 |
| FY2026 Q2 | $12.68B | +123.4% | $0.60 | 6.30% | −$0.05B | 123.0 |
| FY2026 Q3 | $10.24B | +122.7% | $0.72 | 9.95% | −$6.70B | 57.3 |
Two things stand out. Gross margin has not been above 10% in any of the last five quarters, which is what makes 15–17% a genuine break in the series rather than a good quarter. And free cash flow was −$6.70B in the March quarter — this is a business consuming enormous working capital to fund the revenue ramp, and the $60B order book makes that harder, not easier.
With three quarters of $27.94B on the books, FY2026 revenue lands around $38.9–39.4B — the bottom of the company's own $38.9–40.4B full-year guidance, which is the arithmetic consequence of Q4 coming in near the low end.
What to watch tonight
- Whether 15–17% is mix or a re-rating. "Favorable customer and product mix" is a one-quarter explanation. The FY2027 Q1 margin guide is the tell — if it reverts to 9%, the June quarter was a windfall.
- Cash. After −$6.70B in March, the working-capital line matters more than EPS. A $60B order book has to be financed before it is delivered.
- What the $60B of orders actually is. The 8-K itself cautions that the orders "may not constitute firm commitments and may be subject to cancellation or delays." Expect a question on conversion timing and customer concentration.
- The export-control review. The same 8-K discloses that the Board "is conducting an independent review of certain transactions in connection with alleged export-control issues," and states the outcome "could affect our forecasts, these preliminary results and prior period results." That last clause is the one to read twice — it puts already-reported quarters in scope. The review, launched April 7 and tied to a March 2026 DOJ indictment, is covered in our July piece; coming two years after the 2024 auditor resignation and delisting scare, any update on it outranks the margin story.
- The new preferred stock. On August 5 the Board declared the initial dividend on its 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred ($0.73889 per depositary share, payable September 1). Mandatory convertibles dilute on conversion and the dividend sits ahead of common — worth checking how the share count and EPS denominator are being presented.
The bottom line
The pre-announcement removed the usual suspense about revenue and replaced it with a better question. Supermicro has spent two years being valued as a low-margin assembler riding an AI cycle. One quarter at 15–17% does not overturn that, but it is the first evidence against it in five quarters, and it arrived alongside a record order book and a disclosure that prior-period results may be revisited.
Tonight is about which of those three the company chooses to lead with.
Supermicro's preliminary figures, the $60 billion order disclosure, the export-control review language and the call time are from its 8-K of July 21, 2026 (Exhibit 99.1, accession 0001375365-26-000019). The preferred dividend is from its 8-K of August 5, 2026 (accession 0001375365-26-000020). Historical revenue, EPS, gross margin and free cash flow are from our stored Supermicro series; R40 is revenue growth plus free-cash-flow margin on our house definition. The share reaction to the pre-announcement, the DOJ indictment and board-review dates, the prior-quarter non-GAAP EPS and the full-year guidance range are as reported in our July 21 coverage. Consensus estimates are third-party, quoted as a range, and are not held in this repository. Gross-profit scenarios are our arithmetic on the company's own preliminary ranges.
