Micron reports its fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 after the close on Wednesday 30 September, with the call at 2:30 p.m. Mountain. The quarter ended 3 September 2026. Press-reported feeds put the consensus at $31.41 to $31.83 of non-GAAP earnings per share on $50.86 billion to $51.49 billion of revenue. On 24 June Micron guided $31.00 ± $1.00 and $50.0 billion ± $1.0 billion at a gross margin of about 86%, so the Street sits in the upper half of the EPS range and at or just past the top of the revenue range.
The analysts agree about this quarter and disagree about the next. Nasdaq's ten estimates for the August quarter span $30.93 to $32.09, 3.7% of the mean. Its nine for the November quarter span $32.16 to $37.77, 16.1%, and the February quarter's run from $31.48 to $46.40. So the print tonight is mostly a guidance event. The August number has been largely set since June, and what moves the stock is where Micron puts the first quarter of fiscal 2027 inside that $5.61 spread.
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The sequential step is halving, by Micron's own guide
Micron's revenue went from $13.64 billion in the November quarter to $23.86 billion in February and $41.46 billion in May, sequential increases of 74.9% and 73.7%. The guide midpoint of $50.0 billion is +20.6% on May, and the consensus midpoint of $51.18 billion is +23.4%. In dollars, May added $17.6 billion over February; the guide adds $8.5 billion.
Micron's CFO gave the reason on the June call: the outlook "reflects a meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases." That is the mechanism. Most of May's jump came from price: DRAM revenue rose 67% on prices up in the low-60s percent, while cost of goods barely moved. Micron's May-quarter cost of goods was $6.40 billion against $5.79 billion a year earlier, up 10.5% while revenue rose 346%. At the guided 86% margin, $50 billion of revenue carries about $7.0 billion of cost, 9.4% more than May. That points to more bits shipped at prices still rising, just more slowly. Gross margin moving from 84.6% to 86% is what a slowing price increase on a nearly fixed cost base looks like, and it cannot keep going the same way: every further point of margin needs a larger price move than the last.
The contracts that are supposed to make the slowdown safe
In June, Micron announced 16 strategic customer agreements: take-or-pay, mostly five years running through calendar 2030, covering roughly a fifth of its DRAM volume and a third of its NAND. Remaining performance obligations were over $5 billion at the May quarter-end and about $100 billion once the agreements signed after it were counted. Customers had committed $22 billion in deposits and related commitments, about $18 billion in cash, of which about $10 billion was expected in the August quarter.
This quarter is the first full test of that disclosure. The deposits land in financing cash flows, not operating ones, so they will swell the cash balance without touching free cash flow. A reader comparing net cash with free cash flow tonight should expect the two to diverge by roughly that $10 billion.
The counter-case is the one Micron's CEO raised himself: "we currently do not have line-of-sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand," with industry supply expected to improve "gradually in 2028". If that holds, price moderation is a slower climb, not a turn, and the wide November range is analysts disagreeing about pace rather than direction.
What to watch
- The first-quarter fiscal 2027 guide against the $32.16 to $37.77 range. A midpoint near the bottom says prices have flattened. One near the top says the June moderation was temporary.
- Gross margin against the ~86% guide. Above it means price held up better than Micron planned. At or below it means the price curve is bending.
- Remaining performance obligations and the deposit schedule. Whether the ~$100 billion figure grew, how much of the ~$10 billion cash deposit arrived, and whether more agreements were signed.
- Capex for the quarter and the fiscal 2027 plan. Micron guided about $10 billion for the quarter and about $27 billion for fiscal 2026, with fiscal 2027 quarters above the August level.
- The DRAM and NAND price commentary. The release does not print price moves; the CFO's script does. In May DRAM prices rose in the low-60s percent and NAND in the mid-80s.
- Net cash. Micron ended May with $5.7 billion of debt and $24.4 billion of net cash. The deposits alone would add about $10 billion to it.
Micron's page is at /stocks/mu/, and last quarter's figures are in the May quarter capture.
The report date and call time are from Micron's own notice of 26 August 2026. The August-quarter guidance, the May-quarter income statement, cost of goods, margins, debt and net cash, the strategic customer agreements, remaining performance obligations and deposit commitments, the capex plan and the CFO's and CEO's quoted words are from Micron's third-quarter fiscal 2026 release and call of 24 June 2026. Earlier quarterly revenue is from Micron's own releases. The consensus is press-reported from third-party estimate feeds (Nasdaq, Zacks and Bloomberg as quoted in the press between 25 and 30 September 2026) and is neither stored nor verified by this site. Derived here: the sequential growth rates and dollar steps, the cost of goods implied by the margin guide, and the width of each quarter's estimate range.
