Lilly reports Q2 2026 results before the open on August 5, with a conference call at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. The Street is carrying $6.55 of EPS on roughly $20.69B of revenue.
That EPS number is close to meaningless as a threshold, and it is worth explaining why before anyone treats tonight's coverage of a "beat" or a "miss" as information.
A consensus that spans $3.80
Twenty-one analysts have published Q2 estimates. The range runs from $5.28 to $9.08 — the high is 72% above the low. The mean has fallen 25.7% in thirty days, from $8.82, and 19.0% over ninety days.
Estimates do not move like that because analysts changed their minds about Mounjaro volumes. They move like that when the modelling question is binary: how large an acquired in-process R&D charge Lilly books for its recent deal flow, and in which quarter. An analyst including a charge and an analyst excluding it produce different EPS figures from identical operating assumptions.
The practical consequence for reading this morning's print: the revenue line and the guidance are the signal; the EPS beat-or-miss headline is close to noise. Lilly's own full-year guidance — $82–85B of revenue and $35.50–37.00 of non-GAAP EPS, raised by $2 billion alongside Q1 — is the number management is actually steering to, and whether it moves is worth more than where the quarter lands against $6.55.
What the record says
All figures below are from our stored Lilly series through 2026 Q1.
| Quarter | Revenue | FCF | FCF margin | Gross margin | Diluted EPS | Revenue YoY | R40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 | $12,729M | $156M | 1.2% | 82.52% | $3.06 | +45.2% | 46.4 |
| 2025 Q2 | $15,558M | $1,390M | 8.9% | 84.27% | $6.29 | +37.6% | 46.58 |
| 2025 Q3 | $17,601M | $6,748M | 38.3% | 82.91% | $6.21 | +53.9% | 92.21 |
| 2025 Q4 | $19,292M | $678M | 3.5% | 82.53% | $7.39 | +42.6% | 46.07 |
| 2026 Q1 | $19,799M | $3,007M | 15.2% | 81.93% | $8.26 | +55.5% | 70.73 |
Lilly's Rule of 40 score has ranged from 46.07 to 92.21 across five quarters. Every point of that swing is the cash half: revenue growth never left the 37–56% band, while free-cash-flow margin went 1.2%, 8.9%, 38.3%, 3.5%, 15.2%.
The trailing-twelve-month view smooths it into something usable: $72,250M of revenue, up 47.44%, on $11,823M of free cash flow, a 16.36% margin — a score of 63.80. For a company of this size that is an exceptional number, and the quarterly readings are the ones to distrust, not the trailing one. A pharmaceutical company's quarterly free cash flow swings on milestone payments, upfront licensing fees, tax timing and a capital-expenditure programme that has been running above $2 billion a quarter to build GLP-1 manufacturing capacity.
What the consensus implies for the score
Revenue of $20.69B against $15,558M a year ago is +33.0% growth — and if it lands, it would be Lilly's slowest year-over-year quarter in the five above, purely because the base has grown so fast.
At the trailing 16.36% cash margin, that pairs to a score near 49. At Q1's 15.2%, near 48. Getting back above 60 needs a cash quarter like Q1's or Q3 2025's, which in this series means a quarter without a large upfront payment going out the door — not an improvement in the business.
The three things to read the release for
- The Foundayo (orforglipron) ramp. The first oral GLP-1 launch quarter: prescription volumes, channel mix across LillyDirect, PBMs and Medicare, and how many starts are new-to-class rather than switches. This is the number that decides whether 2027 revenue estimates hold, and it will not show up cleanly in the EPS line.
- Whether the $82–85B revenue guide moves. Lilly raised it in Q1. A second raise says the launch is ahead of plan; holding it flat while the quarter beats says management is banking capacity for the launch spend.
- Capital expenditure against the manufacturing buildout. Capex has run $2,087M, $2,547M and $2,326M in the last three quarters. That is the largest recurring drag on the cash half of the score, and the pace of it is a direct statement about expected demand.
The bottom line
Lilly goes into this morning as one of the highest Rule of 40 scores on this site — 63.80 trailing, on 47% revenue growth at $72B of scale, which is the rarer of the two halves by a wide margin.
The quarter itself will be reported against a consensus that its own contributors disagree about by 72%, over an accounting charge. Read the revenue line, read the guidance, and treat the EPS headline as the least informative number in the release.
Lilly figures through 2026 Q1 are from our stored series: revenue, free cash flow, gross margin, diluted EPS and capital expenditure. Free-cash-flow margin and Rule of 40 use the house definition in our Rule of 40 explainer — free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. The August 5 report date and 10:00 a.m. ET call are Lilly's own confirmation; our 2026 earnings schedule and preview data carried August 6 until this piece, and both were corrected in the same commit. Consensus figures ($6.55 mean EPS, $5.28–$9.08 range across 21 analysts, the 25.7% thirty-day revision, $20.69B revenue) are Street numbers reported ahead of the print and are not stored in this repo; the $82–85B revenue and $35.50–37.00 non-GAAP EPS ranges are Lilly's own full-year guidance as raised alongside its Q1 2026 results.