XOM · Forward model · Specialty Products · Bear case
What has to happen in Specialty Products
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Specialty Products
Basis quarter$5.35B
Final quarter$4.23B
Implied CAGR−5%
Final revenue mix6%
Basestocks, Mobil-branded finished lubricants and other high-value specialties. It is the smallest and steadiest of the four segments: ten quarters of revenue inside a $4,341-5,353M band and an EBITDA margin inside 20.2-23.5% in every quarter except the basis one, which makes it the only vertical here whose assumed terminal margin is nearly a disclosed one.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$4.49B
Reported
2025 Q4
$4.34B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$4.41B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.35B
Reported
BasestocksFinished lubricants under the Mobil brandsOther specialty products including waxes and asphalt
Units
1784000/qtr
growing +4.0% per quarter
1,784 kt sold in 2026 Q2, the lowest of the ten quarters, against 1,976 kt in 1Q26.
Price per unit
$3001
drifting −9.0% per quarter
$3,000.56 per tonne is 29% above the $2,229-2,415 band of the prior nine quarters and reverts into it.
Specialty Products
Latest: $4.23B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.64B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.67B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.68B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.37B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.40B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.60B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.49B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.34B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.41B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.35B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.01B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.77B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.60B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.49B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.41B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.35B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.31B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.28B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.26B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.25B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.24B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.24B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.23B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.23B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.23B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.23B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.23B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.23B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.23B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.23B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue per tonne of $3,000.56 in the basis quarter sits 29% above the $2,229-2,415 band of the previous nine quarters, and the prepared remarks attribute the improvement to higher basestock margins and a strong Middle East response, both of them disruption-linked and neither of them permanent.
- The 1,784 kt of the basis quarter is the lowest in the window against 1,976 kt in 1Q26, so the 4% first-quarter volume growth is a recovery rather than an expansion; the terminal 1.0% a quarter is what carries tonnage to the disclosed ~9.0 Mt 2030 plan.
- The model prints 9.05 Mt for FY2030 against the ~9.0 Mt plan, which is the one segment where the base case delivers the 2030 volume target in full.