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XOM · Forward model · Corporate and Financing · Bear case

What has to happen in Corporate and Financing

Model as of

This page changes Corporate and Financing inside the complete XOM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

XOM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $87.39 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $19M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$12M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The disruption ends. Brent returns from $104.52 to the $63.69-69.07 of 4Q25 and 3Q25 and the indicative refining margin from $29.0/bbl to $17.5-18.3, which at the disclosed sensitivities of $700M and $800M of annual earnings per $1/bbl removes roughly $25-28B and $9B of annualised earnings. This case needs no demand recession. The disclosed Strait of Hormuz downside - about 750 koebd of Middle East production against 2025 if the Strait stayed closed through 3Q26 - is a single-quarter outage that no persistent level step can represent, so it is carried here as a deeper and faster price and margin reversion rather than as a volume step.

Corporate and Financing

Basis quarter$24M
Final quarter$19M
Implied CAGR−5%
Final revenue mix0%

Not an operating business. It carries interest and other corporate revenue, which has fallen from $581M a quarter in 2024 Q1 to $24M in the basis quarter as the cash balance went from $23.2B to $10.6B. It exists in this model for one reason: so the five verticals add exactly to reported Total revenues and other income.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $194M Reported
2025 Q4 $235M Estimated
2026 Q1 $170M Reported
2026 Q2 $24M Reported
Interest and other corporate income
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% Flat at the disclosed $24M. Interest income on a falling cash balance, with no operating driver behind it.
Corporate and Financing

Latest: $19M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $581M
2024Q2 $551M
2024Q3 $413M
2024Q4 $308M
2025Q1 $316M
2025Q2 $289M
2025Q3 $194M
2025Q4 $235M
2026Q1 $170M
2026Q2 $24M
2026Q3E $24M
2026Q4E $23M
2027Q1E $23M
2027Q2E $23M
2027Q3E $23M
2027Q4E $22M
2028Q1E $22M
2028Q2E $22M
2028Q3E $22M
2028Q4E $21M
2029Q1E $21M
2029Q2E $21M
2029Q3E $21M
2029Q4E $20M
2030Q1E $20M
2030Q2E $20M
2030Q3E $20M
2030Q4E $19M
2031Q1E $19M
2031Q2E $19M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Held flat at the disclosed $24M rather than extrapolated. The line is 0.02% of consolidated revenue in the basis quarter and any growth rate placed on it would be an invention.
  • Low Carbon Solutions - carbon capture, hydrogen, lithium, Proxxima and low-carbon data centres - has no disclosed revenue line anywhere and is deliberately not given one here. It is scenario evidence, not a sixth vertical.
  • The $90M a quarter of Other cash capital expenditures is carried as a corporate programme rather than as an intensity on this line, because it belongs to no vertical: $90M against $24M of revenue is a 375% ratio with no economic meaning, and the programme keeps the spend in free cash flow where it belongs.
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