XOM · Forward model · Energy Products · Bear case
What has to happen in Energy Products
Model as of
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Energy Products
Basis quarter$89.98B
Final quarter$46.58B
Implied CAGR−12%
Final revenue mix69%
Refineries convert crude into fuels and the monetisation metric is the indicative refining margin per barrel. Energy Products carried 77.6% of consolidated revenue in the basis quarter and is where the 2026 Q2 windfall actually landed, so the model's revenue path is more sensitive to this one line than to the other four combined.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$62.86B
Reported
2025 Q4
$62.68B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$63.75B
Reported
2026 Q2
$89.98B
Reported
Gasolines and naphthasHeating oils, kerosene and dieselAviation fuelsHeavy fuelsOther energy products including trading and optimisation
Units
518518000/qtr
growing 0.0% per quarter
518.5M barrels in 2026 Q2: the disclosed 5,698 kbd of product sales across 91 days.
Price per unit
$174
drifting −11.0% per quarter
$173.53 per barrel sold on a $29.0/bbl refining margin; reverts toward the $118-125 of the 2025 quarters.
Energy Products
Latest: $46.58B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $64.33B |
| 2024Q2 | $69.56B |
| 2024Q3 | $66.65B |
| 2024Q4 | $60.83B |
| 2025Q1 | $60.08B |
| 2025Q2 | $60.13B |
| 2025Q3 | $62.86B |
| 2025Q4 | $62.68B |
| 2026Q1 | $63.75B |
| 2026Q2 | $89.98B |
| 2026Q3E | $79.12B |
| 2026Q4E | $71.98B |
| 2027Q1E | $67.06B |
| 2027Q2E | $63.53B |
| 2027Q3E | $60.91B |
| 2027Q4E | $58.88B |
| 2028Q1E | $57.26B |
| 2028Q2E | $55.92B |
| 2028Q3E | $54.77B |
| 2028Q4E | $53.77B |
| 2029Q1E | $52.87B |
| 2029Q2E | $52.04B |
| 2029Q3E | $51.27B |
| 2029Q4E | $50.53B |
| 2030Q1E | $49.82B |
| 2030Q2E | $49.14B |
| 2030Q3E | $48.48B |
| 2030Q4E | $47.83B |
| 2031Q1E | $47.20B |
| 2031Q2E | $46.58B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The volume driver is product sales of 5,698 kbd rather than refinery throughput of 3,562 kbd, because product sales is the only Energy Products volume disclosed on one basis for all ten reconciling quarters and it produces a stable series: $118-144 per barrel in the nine ordinary quarters against $173.53 in the basis quarter.
- The research brief asked whether the jump in other energy products, 2,356 kbd against 1,158 in 1Q26, is a trading swing that inflates the denominator. Total product sales moved only 1.2% sequentially, from 5,630 to 5,698 kbd, while revenue per barrel rose 39%, so the trading swing did not distort the unit and throughput was not needed instead.
- The 13.47% starting EBITDA margin is above the 9.4% the segment earns on its own because it carries the $3,664M of Upstream EBITDA that the 100% margin cap on that vertical cannot hold. The credit shrinks as Brent normalises, which is why the margin glides to 9.16% rather than staying flat; the first projected quarter already prints 12.6%.
- At the disclosed $800M of annual earnings per $1/bbl, the indicative refining margin returning from $29.0 to the $17.5-18.3 of 3Q25 and 4Q25 removes roughly $9B of annualised earnings, and that reversion is what the price drift encodes.