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XOM · Forward model · Specialty Products · Guyana case

What has to happen in Specialty Products

Model as of

This page changes Specialty Products inside the complete XOM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

XOM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $171.03 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $5.39B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $18.34B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The only asset-level economics disclosed this quarter, applied to the Upstream vertical alone. Co-venturers have invested more than $55B since 2014 and recovered it about two years ahead of the investment basis, generating more than $13B of incremental revenue and cost savings; the first four FPSOs run roughly 100 kbd above their original basis at about 98% reliability, the fifth sailed in June for 4Q26 startup with 250 kbd of capacity, and the company expects its share of Guyana free cash flow to more than double between 2025 and 2030. What this case does not achieve is the rest of the plan: Chemical and Specialty tonnage, the refining margin and the cost-savings target are all left exactly where the base case puts them, and the ~100 kbd entitlement step still lands in the first projected quarter.

Specialty Products

Basis quarter$5.35B
Final quarter$5.39B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix6%

Basestocks, Mobil-branded finished lubricants and other high-value specialties. It is the smallest and steadiest of the four segments: ten quarters of revenue inside a $4,341-5,353M band and an EBITDA margin inside 20.2-23.5% in every quarter except the basis one, which makes it the only vertical here whose assumed terminal margin is nearly a disclosed one.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.49B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.34B Estimated
2026 Q1 $4.41B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.35B Reported
BasestocksFinished lubricants under the Mobil brandsOther specialty products including waxes and asphalt
Units 1784000/qtr growing +4.0% per quarter 1,784 kt sold in 2026 Q2, the lowest of the ten quarters, against 1,976 kt in 1Q26.
Price per unit $3001 drifting −9.0% per quarter $3,000.56 per tonne is 29% above the $2,229-2,415 band of the prior nine quarters and reverts into it.
Specialty Products

Latest: $5.39B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $4.64B
2024Q2 $4.67B
2024Q3 $4.68B
2024Q4 $4.37B
2025Q1 $4.40B
2025Q2 $4.60B
2025Q3 $4.49B
2025Q4 $4.34B
2026Q1 $4.41B
2026Q2 $5.35B
2026Q3E $5.07B
2026Q4E $4.88B
2027Q1E $4.77B
2027Q2E $4.71B
2027Q3E $4.68B
2027Q4E $4.68B
2028Q1E $4.69B
2028Q2E $4.72B
2028Q3E $4.75B
2028Q4E $4.80B
2029Q1E $4.84B
2029Q2E $4.90B
2029Q3E $4.95B
2029Q4E $5.01B
2030Q1E $5.07B
2030Q2E $5.13B
2030Q3E $5.19B
2030Q4E $5.26B
2031Q1E $5.32B
2031Q2E $5.39B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue per tonne of $3,000.56 in the basis quarter sits 29% above the $2,229-2,415 band of the previous nine quarters, and the prepared remarks attribute the improvement to higher basestock margins and a strong Middle East response, both of them disruption-linked and neither of them permanent.
  • The 1,784 kt of the basis quarter is the lowest in the window against 1,976 kt in 1Q26, so the 4% first-quarter volume growth is a recovery rather than an expansion; the terminal 1.0% a quarter is what carries tonnage to the disclosed ~9.0 Mt 2030 plan.
  • The model prints 9.05 Mt for FY2030 against the ~9.0 Mt plan, which is the one segment where the base case delivers the 2030 volume target in full.
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