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XIACY · Forward model · Smartphones · Bull case

What has to happen in Smartphones

Model as of

This page changes Smartphones inside the complete XIACY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

XIACY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $35.18 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $9.48B 28% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6.67B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Memory normalises inside two years, SkyNomad does to the SUV segment what SU7 did to the sedan segment, and the MiMo line becomes a third monetisation surface rather than a rounding error. Terminal revenue lands about 30% above base. State the gap honestly: even here the model does not reach a re-rating to the 3x revenue multiple Xiaomi carried before the memory squeeze - that would need the exit slider, not the drivers, and this case deliberately does not do it for you.

Smartphones

Basis quarter$6.19B
Final quarter$9.48B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix28%

The acquisition engine, deliberately shrinking. Xiaomi shipped 31.2 million phones in the June quarter, down 26.5% year over year, while pushing average selling price to a record RMB1,351 - up 25.9%. The strategy is working on its own terms: phones at RMB3,000 or more reached 32.1% of Chinese mainland units, a record. It produced an 8.5% gross margin anyway, because memory cost more than the price increase recovered. This line is not where the profit is and has not been for years. It is where the 766 million monthly active users come from, which is where the profit is.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.43B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.25B Estimated
2026 Q1 $6.40B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.19B Reported
Chinese mainland smartphonesOverseas smartphones
Units 31200000/qtr growing +0.5% per quarter 31.2m shipped in the June quarter, down 26.5% YoY - the company calls it actively adjusting shipment cadence.
Price per unit $198 drifting +0.5% per quarter $198.30 is RMB1,349 at 6.8046, the ASP implied by RMB42.1bn over 31.2m units. Disclosed ASP is RMB1,351.
Smartphones

Latest: $9.48B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $6.29B
2025Q3 $6.43B
2025Q4 $6.25B
2026Q1 $6.40B
2026Q2 $6.19B
2026Q3E $6.33B
2026Q4E $6.47B
2027Q1E $6.62B
2027Q2E $6.77B
2027Q3E $6.92B
2027Q4E $7.07B
2028Q1E $7.22B
2028Q2E $7.38B
2028Q3E $7.54B
2028Q4E $7.70B
2029Q1E $7.87B
2029Q2E $8.03B
2029Q3E $8.20B
2029Q4E $8.38B
2030Q1E $8.55B
2030Q2E $8.73B
2030Q3E $8.91B
2030Q4E $9.10B
2031Q1E $9.29B
2031Q2E $9.48B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Gross margin of 8.5% is disclosed. The 1.0% EBITDA margin is ours: it loads this line with a share of the RMB19.4bn of quarterly operating expense that Xiaomi reports only for the group, and adds back an assumed share of depreciation. Xiaomi publishes no operating profit for the smartphone line.
  • The terminal 6% assumes memory prices normalise and the premium mix built during the squeeze survives it. Both halves have to be true. If memory stays where it is and the mix reverts, this line runs closer to 2% and the model loses roughly a tenth of its value.
  • Units and price are modelled independently, which is the point: the June quarter is the first in years where they moved hard in opposite directions, and a single growth rate would have hidden it entirely.
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