XIACY · Forward model · Smart EV, AI and other new initiatives · Bull case
What has to happen in Smart EV, AI and other new initiatives
Model as of
This page changes Smart EV, AI and other new initiatives inside the complete XIACY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Smart EV, AI and other new initiatives
The second engine, and the only vertical here with a shape rather than a rate. RMB24.9 billion in the June quarter, up 17.1%, at a 19.2% gross margin - a car business whose gross margin is now more than double the phone business's. Xiaomi delivered 104,199 vehicles, up 28.2%, into a Chinese passenger-vehicle market that shrank 22%. It still lost RMB2.6 billion from operations, because the quarter carried the run-up to the SkyNomad extended-range SUV line launching in September. The AI tail inside this segment - MiMo, priced by API token - turned over about RMB1.0 billion and is the first time it has been visible at all.
Latest: $14.19B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $2.94B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.07B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.25B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.87B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.66B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.97B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.30B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.67B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.06B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.50B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.96B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.47B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.03B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.63B |
| 2028Q4E | $8.29B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.00B |
| 2029Q2E | $9.78B |
| 2029Q3E | $10.62B |
| 2029Q4E | $11.53B |
| 2030Q1E | $12.53B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.86B |
| 2030Q3E | $13.18B |
| 2030Q4E | $13.51B |
| 2031Q1E | $13.84B |
| 2031Q2E | $14.19B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The unit price here is segment revenue divided by vehicles delivered, which is higher than the car's own average selling price because the segment also contains the AI and other-new-initiatives line. A reader moving the deliveries figure is moving the whole segment with it, and that is stated rather than hidden.
- This is the one vertical where operating profit IS disclosed: the segment lost RMB2.6bn from operations in the June quarter, and earned RMB0.9bn across the whole of 2025. The -2.5% EBITDA margin is that loss with an assumed depreciation add-back, and the depreciation is ours.
- Capex intensity of 9.2% comes from a disclosed figure: of RMB3,620.5m of group capital expenditure in the quarter, RMB2,382.6m was smart EV, AI and other new initiatives. It is the only vertical here whose capex is not an allocation.
- The terminal 12% EBITDA margin is the largest single judgement in this model. It assumes Xiaomi reaches something like a mature volume carmaker's economics on a line that has been positive for exactly one year. Move it before anything else.