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VIST · Forward model · Natural gas · Bear case

What has to happen in Natural gas

Model as of

This page changes Natural gas inside the complete VIST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

VIST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $52.67 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $35M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $254M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Brent falls back to the 75 dollars a barrel Vista itself published as its downside scenario, and the tie-in programme delivers the bottom of the 100-110 range while VMOS slips past mid-2027. The wells are still drilled, so volume still grows; the realised price and the margin do not. Vista's own elasticity says a 10 dollar shortfall costs about 200 million dollars of Adjusted EBITDA in a half-year, roughly 400 million annualised against a 3.0 billion dollar 2026 guide.

Natural gas

Basis quarter$34M
Final quarter$35M
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix3%

Associated gas from the same wells, 2.8% of revenue, sold three ways at three prices: Plan GasAr contracts took 29% of Q2 2026 volume at 3.5 dollars per MMBtu, industrial clients 66% at 2.6, and exports the remaining 5% at 5.3. Volume rises mechanically with the oil programme because nothing here is drilled for gas. The price is the one genuinely seasonal thing Vista sells: the Argentine winter falls in the second and third calendar quarters.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $29M Reported
2025 Q4 $16M Reported
2026 Q1 $18M Reported
2026 Q2 $34M Reported
Domestic gas sales under Plan GasAr and to industrial clientsExport gas sales
Capacity energised 19924 boe/d at the basis quarter 19,924 boe/d, the disclosed 156,061 boe/d total less oil and NGL; 3.17 MMm3/d in Vista's units.
Capacity added 908 boe/d/qtr changing −3.1% per quarter 908 boe/d a quarter, the 12.8% gas share of the group build that guidance implies.
Utilisation 100% gliding toward 100% 100%: associated gas is produced and sold, not held back.
Revenue per boe/d $1382/qtr drifting −3.7% per quarter $1,382 a quarter per boe/d, the gross $1,709 deseasonalised by the 1.237 Q2 factor.
Natural gas

Latest: $35M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $22M
2023Q2 $17M
2023Q3 $16M
2023Q4 $12M
2024Q1 $15M
2024Q2 $22M
2024Q3 $20M
2024Q4 $15M
2025Q1 $14M
2025Q2 $25M
2025Q3 $29M
2025Q4 $16M
2026Q1 $18M
2026Q2 $34M
2026Q3E $32M
2026Q4E $21M
2027Q1E $22M
2027Q2E $34M
2027Q3E $32M
2027Q4E $21M
2028Q1E $22M
2028Q2E $34M
2028Q3E $33M
2028Q4E $22M
2029Q1E $22M
2029Q2E $34M
2029Q3E $33M
2029Q4E $22M
2030Q1E $22M
2030Q2E $35M
2030Q3E $33M
2030Q4E $22M
2031Q1E $22M
2031Q2E $35M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Capacity is stated in barrels of oil equivalent a day rather than the MMm3/d Vista publishes, so it can be added to the crude line: 19,924 boe/d is the residual of the disclosed 156,061 boe/d total less 135,427 bbl/d of oil and 710 boe/d of NGL, and 3.17 MMm3/d is the same volume in the company's units.
  • Seasonality is the one place this model asserts a shape. Factors of 0.80, 1.24, 1.18 and 0.78 come from ratios to a centred four-quarter moving average of disclosed gas revenue, and the mechanism is stated rather than fitted: realised gas prices run 2.0 to 2.5 dollars per MMBtu in the first and fourth calendar quarters against 2.8 to 3.9 in the second and third, in every year of the history.
  • Revenue per unit is entered deseasonalised. Gross gas revenue is 1,709 dollars a quarter per boe/d of capacity, divided by the 1.237 second-quarter factor, because the engine re-applies the factor to every projected quarter.
  • No capital intensity sits on this line. The gas comes out of wells the crude line has already paid for, so charging it capex again would double-count the same drilling programme.
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