VIST · Forward model · Natural gas · 2030 vision case
What has to happen in Natural gas
Model as of
This page changes Natural gas inside the complete VIST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Natural gas
Basis quarter$34M
Final quarter$56M
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix3%
Associated gas from the same wells, 2.8% of revenue, sold three ways at three prices: Plan GasAr contracts took 29% of Q2 2026 volume at 3.5 dollars per MMBtu, industrial clients 66% at 2.6, and exports the remaining 5% at 5.3. Volume rises mechanically with the oil programme because nothing here is drilled for gas. The price is the one genuinely seasonal thing Vista sells: the Argentine winter falls in the second and third calendar quarters.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$29M
Reported
2025 Q4
$16M
Reported
2026 Q1
$18M
Reported
2026 Q2
$34M
Reported
Domestic gas sales under Plan GasAr and to industrial clientsExport gas sales
Capacity energised
19924 boe/d
at the basis quarter
19,924 boe/d, the disclosed 156,061 boe/d total less oil and NGL; 3.17 MMm3/d in Vista's units.
Capacity added
908 boe/d/qtr
changing −3.1% per quarter
908 boe/d a quarter, the 12.8% gas share of the group build that guidance implies.
Utilisation
100%
gliding toward 100%
100%: associated gas is produced and sold, not held back.
Revenue per boe/d
$1382/qtr
drifting −3.7% per quarter
$1,382 a quarter per boe/d, the gross $1,709 deseasonalised by the 1.237 Q2 factor.
Natural gas
Latest: $56M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $22M |
| 2023Q2 | $17M |
| 2023Q3 | $16M |
| 2023Q4 | $12M |
| 2024Q1 | $15M |
| 2024Q2 | $22M |
| 2024Q3 | $20M |
| 2024Q4 | $15M |
| 2025Q1 | $14M |
| 2025Q2 | $25M |
| 2025Q3 | $29M |
| 2025Q4 | $16M |
| 2026Q1 | $18M |
| 2026Q2 | $34M |
| 2026Q3E | $33M |
| 2026Q4E | $22M |
| 2027Q1E | $23M |
| 2027Q2E | $37M |
| 2027Q3E | $36M |
| 2027Q4E | $25M |
| 2028Q1E | $26M |
| 2028Q2E | $41M |
| 2028Q3E | $41M |
| 2028Q4E | $28M |
| 2029Q1E | $29M |
| 2029Q2E | $46M |
| 2029Q3E | $45M |
| 2029Q4E | $31M |
| 2030Q1E | $32M |
| 2030Q2E | $51M |
| 2030Q3E | $50M |
| 2030Q4E | $34M |
| 2031Q1E | $35M |
| 2031Q2E | $56M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Capacity is stated in barrels of oil equivalent a day rather than the MMm3/d Vista publishes, so it can be added to the crude line: 19,924 boe/d is the residual of the disclosed 156,061 boe/d total less 135,427 bbl/d of oil and 710 boe/d of NGL, and 3.17 MMm3/d is the same volume in the company's units.
- Seasonality is the one place this model asserts a shape. Factors of 0.80, 1.24, 1.18 and 0.78 come from ratios to a centred four-quarter moving average of disclosed gas revenue, and the mechanism is stated rather than fitted: realised gas prices run 2.0 to 2.5 dollars per MMBtu in the first and fourth calendar quarters against 2.8 to 3.9 in the second and third, in every year of the history.
- Revenue per unit is entered deseasonalised. Gross gas revenue is 1,709 dollars a quarter per boe/d of capacity, divided by the 1.237 second-quarter factor, because the engine re-applies the factor to every projected quarter.
- No capital intensity sits on this line. The gas comes out of wells the crude line has already paid for, so charging it capex again would double-count the same drilling programme.