VIST · Forward model · Crude oil · Bear case
What has to happen in Crude oil
Model as of
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Crude oil
Ninety-seven percent of revenue is Vaca Muerta shale crude. Every barrel is sold at export parity and 72% of volumes physically leave the country, so nothing about this line is demand-constrained: revenue is barrels tied in and evacuable, multiplied by a dollar price that tracks Brent less a narrowing Argentine differential. The constraint is the tie-in programme - 100 to 110 net wells a year - and the pipelines that carry the oil, Oldelval Duplicar today and VMOS from mid-2027.
Latest: $1.22B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $294M |
| 2023Q2 | $222M |
| 2023Q3 | $286M |
| 2023Q4 | $296M |
| 2024Q1 | $302M |
| 2024Q2 | $375M |
| 2024Q3 | $441M |
| 2024Q4 | $455M |
| 2025Q1 | $423M |
| 2025Q2 | $584M |
| 2025Q3 | $676M |
| 2025Q4 | $701M |
| 2026Q1 | $845M |
| 2026Q2 | $1.20B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.19B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.19B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.19B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.20B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.20B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.21B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.21B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.21B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.22B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.22B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.22B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Capacity is producing barrels a day and revenue per unit is gross IFRS crude revenue per barrel-of-daily-capacity per quarter: 1,198,951 thousand over 135,427 bbl/d, which is 8,853 dollars a quarter, or 97.29 dollars a barrel over 91 days. That is not the 89.4 dollars a barrel Vista publishes as its average realized price, which is net of export duties, sea freight and hedges and is stated on the stake-adjusted basis.
- The build rate decays 3.1% a quarter rather than compounding, because guidance itself decelerates: the step from 156 Mboe/d in Q2 2026 to a 158 Mboe/d full-year average needs a fast second half, after which 185 in 2027 and 208 in 2028 are progressively smaller increments.
- All of the group's capital programme is carried on this line, so capex intensity here is the group figure grossed up for the 2.9% of revenue that gas and NGL contribute. Guided 2026 capex of 1.8 $Bn over the model's 2026 gross revenue is 39% at group level and 40.3% on crude alone.
- Vista publishes production by concession every quarter but never revenue by concession, so this line is not broken down across Bajada del Palo, La Amarga Chica, Bandurria Sur or Bajo del Toro. Doing so would invent a split the company does not report.