← Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.
VIST · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
What is disclosed and what is not. Vista reports one operating segment, so the three lines here are not IFRS segments - they are the revenue disaggregation Vista prints on the face of every quarterly income statement: crude oil, natural gas, and LPG. They sum to consolidated revenue to the dollar in all fourteen quarters, with no apportionment and no estimated actuals. Production for the same three products is disclosed in the same releases. Nothing is split by concession, because Vista publishes production by block but never revenue by block. The basis question that matters. This model projects IFRS gross revenue from contracts with customers, which is what the actuals are: 1,234.9 $MM in Q2 2026. Vista's own headline figures are different numbers on different bases - 1,211.9 $MM stake-adjusted for YPF's 16.3% non-controlling interest in Bandurria Sur Participaciones, and 1,154.4 $MM after also netting hedges and the sea freight its trading arm collects inside revenue. Its guided 'total revenues' of 4.2, 4.9 and 5.3 $Bn are on that last basis. In the first half of 2026 the gross figure ran 13.6% above it. Comparisons here are stated on the gross basis and converted before being set against guidance; the same care applies to price, where the model's derived 97.29 $/bbl is gross revenue over produced barrels and the company's published 89.4 $/bbl is net of duties, freight and hedges. What the model reproduces. Calibrated to the guidance Vista filed on 11 May 2026 after the Equinor transaction closed. The volume path averages 155,999 boe/d in 2026 against the guided 158,000, an error of -1.27%; 186,178 in 2027 against 185,000; 209,685 in 2028 against 208,000; and 248,653 in 2030 against the 250,000 of the filed 2030 vision. Projected 2027 and 2028 revenue land within 0.6% of the guided figures converted to the gross basis, and projected 2028 Adjusted EBITDA within 0.1% of the guided 3.6 $Bn. What is assumed. The 13% discount rate, the 4.5x exit multiple, the 30% forward tax rate against a 26.5% effective rate in Q2 2026 and a 35% statutory rate, the margin glide from 68.8% to 67.1% at vertical level, and the entire 2029-2031 volume path, which interpolates between the filed 2028 and 2030 anchors and then plateaus. Sixty-nine point seven percent of enterprise value sits in the terminal value. What is left out. The non-controlling interest is inside the revenue lines but is not deducted from equity value here; at 190.0 $MM of balance-sheet equity and 11.3 $MM of quarterly profit it is worth roughly a dollar a share against a $106.98 base case. Vista pays no dividend and the model assumes none.
Brent falls back to the 75 dollars a barrel Vista itself published as its downside scenario, and the tie-in programme delivers the bottom of the 100-110 range while VMOS slips past mid-2027. The wells are still drilled, so volume still grows; the realised price and the margin do not. Vista's own elasticity says a 10 dollar shortfall costs about 200 million dollars of Adjusted EBITDA in a half-year, roughly 400 million annualised against a 3.0 billion dollar 2026 guide.
Latest: $1.25B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $317M |
| 2023Q2 | $240M |
| 2023Q3 | $303M |
| 2023Q4 | $309M |
| 2024Q1 | $317M |
| 2024Q2 | $397M |
| 2024Q3 | $462M |
| 2024Q4 | $471M |
| 2025Q1 | $438M |
| 2025Q2 | $611M |
| 2025Q3 | $706M |
| 2025Q4 | $719M |
| 2026Q1 | $865M |
| 2026Q2 | $1.23B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.21B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.20B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.22B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.21B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.22B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.23B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.24B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.23B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.23B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.25B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.25B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.24B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.24B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.26B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.26B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.24B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.24B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.25B |
What drives each segment
Crude oil
Capacity × utilisation × priceNinety-seven percent of revenue is Vaca Muerta shale crude. Every barrel is sold at export parity and 72% of volumes physically leave the country, so nothing about this line is demand-constrained: revenue is barrels tied in and evacuable, multiplied by a dollar price that tracks Brent less a narrowing Argentine differential. The constraint is the tie-in programme - 100 to 110 net wells a year - and the pipelines that carry the oil, Oldelval Duplicar today and VMOS from mid-2027.
Latest: $1.22B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $294M |
| 2023Q2 | $222M |
| 2023Q3 | $286M |
| 2023Q4 | $296M |
| 2024Q1 | $302M |
| 2024Q2 | $375M |
| 2024Q3 | $441M |
| 2024Q4 | $455M |
| 2025Q1 | $423M |
| 2025Q2 | $584M |
| 2025Q3 | $676M |
| 2025Q4 | $701M |
| 2026Q1 | $845M |
| 2026Q2 | $1.20B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.19B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.19B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.19B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.20B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.20B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.21B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.21B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.21B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.22B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.22B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.22B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Capacity is producing barrels a day and revenue per unit is gross IFRS crude revenue per barrel-of-daily-capacity per quarter: 1,198,951 thousand over 135,427 bbl/d, which is 8,853 dollars a quarter, or 97.29 dollars a barrel over 91 days. That is not the 89.4 dollars a barrel Vista publishes as its average realized price, which is net of export duties, sea freight and hedges and is stated on the stake-adjusted basis.
- The build rate decays 3.1% a quarter rather than compounding, because guidance itself decelerates: the step from 156 Mboe/d in Q2 2026 to a 158 Mboe/d full-year average needs a fast second half, after which 185 in 2027 and 208 in 2028 are progressively smaller increments.
- All of the group's capital programme is carried on this line, so capex intensity here is the group figure grossed up for the 2.9% of revenue that gas and NGL contribute. Guided 2026 capex of 1.8 $Bn over the model's 2026 gross revenue is 39% at group level and 40.3% on crude alone.
- Vista publishes production by concession every quarter but never revenue by concession, so this line is not broken down across Bajada del Palo, La Amarga Chica, Bandurria Sur or Bajo del Toro. Doing so would invent a split the company does not report.
Natural gas
Capacity × utilisation × priceAssociated gas from the same wells, 2.8% of revenue, sold three ways at three prices: Plan GasAr contracts took 29% of Q2 2026 volume at 3.5 dollars per MMBtu, industrial clients 66% at 2.6, and exports the remaining 5% at 5.3. Volume rises mechanically with the oil programme because nothing here is drilled for gas. The price is the one genuinely seasonal thing Vista sells: the Argentine winter falls in the second and third calendar quarters.
Latest: $35M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $22M |
| 2023Q2 | $17M |
| 2023Q3 | $16M |
| 2023Q4 | $12M |
| 2024Q1 | $15M |
| 2024Q2 | $22M |
| 2024Q3 | $20M |
| 2024Q4 | $15M |
| 2025Q1 | $14M |
| 2025Q2 | $25M |
| 2025Q3 | $29M |
| 2025Q4 | $16M |
| 2026Q1 | $18M |
| 2026Q2 | $34M |
| 2026Q3E | $32M |
| 2026Q4E | $21M |
| 2027Q1E | $22M |
| 2027Q2E | $34M |
| 2027Q3E | $32M |
| 2027Q4E | $21M |
| 2028Q1E | $22M |
| 2028Q2E | $34M |
| 2028Q3E | $33M |
| 2028Q4E | $22M |
| 2029Q1E | $22M |
| 2029Q2E | $34M |
| 2029Q3E | $33M |
| 2029Q4E | $22M |
| 2030Q1E | $22M |
| 2030Q2E | $35M |
| 2030Q3E | $33M |
| 2030Q4E | $22M |
| 2031Q1E | $22M |
| 2031Q2E | $35M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Capacity is stated in barrels of oil equivalent a day rather than the MMm3/d Vista publishes, so it can be added to the crude line: 19,924 boe/d is the residual of the disclosed 156,061 boe/d total less 135,427 bbl/d of oil and 710 boe/d of NGL, and 3.17 MMm3/d is the same volume in the company's units.
- Seasonality is the one place this model asserts a shape. Factors of 0.80, 1.24, 1.18 and 0.78 come from ratios to a centred four-quarter moving average of disclosed gas revenue, and the mechanism is stated rather than fitted: realised gas prices run 2.0 to 2.5 dollars per MMBtu in the first and fourth calendar quarters against 2.8 to 3.9 in the second and third, in every year of the history.
- Revenue per unit is entered deseasonalised. Gross gas revenue is 1,709 dollars a quarter per boe/d of capacity, divided by the 1.237 second-quarter factor, because the engine re-applies the factor to every projected quarter.
- No capital intensity sits on this line. The gas comes out of wells the crude line has already paid for, so charging it capex again would double-count the same drilling programme.
NGL and LPG
Growth pathOne and a half tenths of a percent of revenue: 1.9 million dollars on 710 boe/d at 406 dollars a tonne in Q2 2026. It is a processing byproduct of the conventional assets and of gas treatment, reported on the income statement as revenues from LPG sales and in the operating tables as NGL. It is carried as its own line only because Vista reports it as one, and it will never move the valuation.
Latest: $2M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1M |
| 2023Q2 | $1M |
| 2023Q3 | $733,000.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $968,000.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $201,000.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $276,000.00 |
| 2024Q3 | $1M |
| 2024Q4 | $1M |
| 2025Q1 | $2M |
| 2025Q2 | $1M |
| 2025Q3 | $1M |
| 2025Q4 | $2M |
| 2026Q1 | $2M |
| 2026Q2 | $2M |
| 2026Q3E | $2M |
| 2026Q4E | $2M |
| 2027Q1E | $2M |
| 2027Q2E | $2M |
| 2027Q3E | $2M |
| 2027Q4E | $2M |
| 2028Q1E | $2M |
| 2028Q2E | $2M |
| 2028Q3E | $2M |
| 2028Q4E | $2M |
| 2029Q1E | $2M |
| 2029Q2E | $2M |
| 2029Q3E | $2M |
| 2029Q4E | $2M |
| 2030Q1E | $2M |
| 2030Q2E | $2M |
| 2030Q3E | $2M |
| 2030Q4E | $2M |
| 2031Q1E | $2M |
| 2031Q2E | $2M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than a capacity one, because no operational driver can be evidenced: volume swung between 139 and 784 boe/d across the last nine quarters with no relation to the drilling programme, and Vista sets no target for it.
- Two percent a quarter fading toward one is a loose track of the oil programme, not a company figure. On a line worth 0.15% of revenue, the difference between any two plausible rates is smaller than the rounding on the crude line.
- The conventional assets that feed most of this volume are operated by Tango under a transfer agreement, and Vista's entitlement was already renegotiated once, in September 2025, so the line is structurally in run-off even as the shale grows.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Base case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Base column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The guidance the base case reproduces
- May 11, 2026 Vista announces an update to its 2026-2028 guidance and 2030 vision
- Jul 17, 2026 On track to deliver our 2026 guidance across all key operating and financial metrics
- Jul 16, 2026 Total production in Q2 2026 was 156,061 boe/d, a 16% increase compared to Q1 2026, and a 32% increase compared to Q2 2025
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The quarter this case extrapolates
2030 vision case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the 2030 vision column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $3.22B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $4.99B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $2.92B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 3.6x |
| Terminal value | $10.52B |
| Discounted at 13.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $5.71B |
| Enterprise value | $8.93B |
| Net cash | -$3.06B |
| Equity value | $5.87B |
| Shares | 0.11B |
| Fair value per share | $52.67 |
| Against the deployed price of $71.46, as of | -26% |
A 13% discount rate is a US energy cost of capital plus an Argentine country risk premium; for a company whose every producing asset sits in one Argentine basin, that premium matters more than any beta. The 4.5x exit on trailing four-quarter EBITDA assumes partial, not full, convergence toward US shale peers: Vista trades at 3.7x its own guided 2026 Adjusted EBITDA today, on an enterprise value of 11.0 $Bn against a 7.96 $Bn market capitalisation and 3,056.8 $MM of net debt. Sixty-nine point seven percent of enterprise value sits in the terminal, so the multiple is the single most consequential input: 3.5x gives $86.16 a share, 4.5x gives $106.98, and 5.5x gives $127.81.
Read the other way round: at $71.46 the market is paying 4.9x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Crude oil | Natural gas | NGL and LPG | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $1.19B | $32M | $2M | $1.22B | +73% | $732M | $466M | $187M | +88 | $181M |
| 2026 Q4E | $1.18B | $21M | $2M | $1.21B | +68% | $719M | $452M | $187M | +83 | $176M |
| 2027 Q1E | $1.18B | $22M | $2M | $1.20B | +39% | $716M | $441M | $193M | +55 | $176M |
| 2027 Q2E | $1.18B | $34M | $2M | $1.22B | -1% | $721M | $432M | $203M | +15 | $179M |
| 2027 Q3E | $1.18B | $32M | $2M | $1.22B | +0% | $720M | $425M | $207M | +17 | $178M |
| 2027 Q4E | $1.19B | $21M | $2M | $1.21B | +0% | $715M | $419M | $207M | +18 | $172M |
| 2028 Q1E | $1.19B | $22M | $2M | $1.22B | +1% | $717M | $414M | $212M | +18 | $171M |
| 2028 Q2E | $1.20B | $34M | $2M | $1.23B | +1% | $725M | $410M | $221M | +19 | $173M |
| 2028 Q3E | $1.20B | $33M | $2M | $1.24B | +1% | $727M | $407M | $224M | +20 | $170M |
| 2028 Q4E | $1.21B | $22M | $2M | $1.23B | +1% | $722M | $404M | $223M | +20 | $164M |
| 2029 Q1E | $1.21B | $22M | $2M | $1.23B | +1% | $724M | $402M | $226M | +20 | $161M |
| 2029 Q2E | $1.21B | $34M | $2M | $1.25B | +1% | $733M | $399M | $233M | +20 | $162M |
| 2029 Q3E | $1.22B | $33M | $2M | $1.25B | +1% | $733M | $397M | $235M | +20 | $158M |
| 2029 Q4E | $1.22B | $22M | $2M | $1.24B | +1% | $728M | $396M | $233M | +20 | $152M |
| 2030 Q1E | $1.22B | $22M | $2M | $1.24B | +1% | $729M | $394M | $234M | +20 | $148M |
| 2030 Q2E | $1.22B | $35M | $2M | $1.26B | +1% | $736M | $392M | $241M | +20 | $148M |
| 2030 Q3E | $1.22B | $33M | $2M | $1.26B | +0% | $735M | $390M | $241M | +20 | $144M |
| 2030 Q4E | $1.22B | $22M | $2M | $1.24B | +0% | $728M | $388M | $238M | +19 | $137M |
| 2031 Q1E | $1.22B | $22M | $2M | $1.24B | +0% | $727M | $386M | $238M | +19 | $133M |
| 2031 Q2E | $1.22B | $35M | $2M | $1.25B | +0% | $733M | $385M | $244M | +19 | $132M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | $106.98 | Model created on the 2026 Q2 basis, calibrated to the 11 May 2026 guidance update that followed the Equinor transaction. |