VIST · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-09-01

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

What is disclosed and what is not. Vista reports one operating segment, so the three lines here are not IFRS segments - they are the revenue disaggregation Vista prints on the face of every quarterly income statement: crude oil, natural gas, and LPG. They sum to consolidated revenue to the dollar in all fourteen quarters, with no apportionment and no estimated actuals. Production for the same three products is disclosed in the same releases. Nothing is split by concession, because Vista publishes production by block but never revenue by block. The basis question that matters. This model projects IFRS gross revenue from contracts with customers, which is what the actuals are: 1,234.9 $MM in Q2 2026. Vista's own headline figures are different numbers on different bases - 1,211.9 $MM stake-adjusted for YPF's 16.3% non-controlling interest in Bandurria Sur Participaciones, and 1,154.4 $MM after also netting hedges and the sea freight its trading arm collects inside revenue. Its guided 'total revenues' of 4.2, 4.9 and 5.3 $Bn are on that last basis. In the first half of 2026 the gross figure ran 13.6% above it. Comparisons here are stated on the gross basis and converted before being set against guidance; the same care applies to price, where the model's derived 97.29 $/bbl is gross revenue over produced barrels and the company's published 89.4 $/bbl is net of duties, freight and hedges. What the model reproduces. Calibrated to the guidance Vista filed on 11 May 2026 after the Equinor transaction closed. The volume path averages 155,999 boe/d in 2026 against the guided 158,000, an error of -1.27%; 186,178 in 2027 against 185,000; 209,685 in 2028 against 208,000; and 248,653 in 2030 against the 250,000 of the filed 2030 vision. Projected 2027 and 2028 revenue land within 0.6% of the guided figures converted to the gross basis, and projected 2028 Adjusted EBITDA within 0.1% of the guided 3.6 $Bn. What is assumed. The 13% discount rate, the 4.5x exit multiple, the 30% forward tax rate against a 26.5% effective rate in Q2 2026 and a 35% statutory rate, the margin glide from 68.8% to 67.1% at vertical level, and the entire 2029-2031 volume path, which interpolates between the filed 2028 and 2030 anchors and then plateaus. Sixty-nine point seven percent of enterprise value sits in the terminal value. What is left out. The non-controlling interest is inside the revenue lines but is not deducted from equity value here; at 190.0 $MM of balance-sheet equity and 11.3 $MM of quarterly profit it is worth roughly a dollar a share against a $106.98 base case. Vista pays no dividend and the model assumes none.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.