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What has to happen in FSD / Autonomy

Model as of

This page changes FSD / Autonomy inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $272.39 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.40B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $32.44B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items
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FSD / Autonomy

Basis quarter$600M
Final quarter$4.40B
Implied CAGR+49%
Final revenue mix9%

The software layer sold on top of the fleet: one-time purchases and subscriptions. High margin, attach-rate driven, and the enabler without which Robotaxi does not exist.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $450M Estimated
2025 Q4 $500M Estimated
2026 Q1 $551M Estimated
2026 Q2 $600M Estimated
FSD subscriptionsOne-time FSD purchasesLicensing to other OEMs
Subscribers 1.7M 28.3% of a 6.0M addressable base 1.7M paying subscribers against a 6M HW4-capable fleet — 28% attach, and the whole opportunity.
Addressable subscribers 6.0M the S-curve ceiling 6M HW4-capable vehicles. Older hardware cannot run current FSD and has never been retrofitted at scale.
Net adds 0/qtr ramping toward 0/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
Net-add ceiling 0/qtr what supply can deliver at full rate
ARPU $99.00/mo drifting 0.0% per quarter, floor $79.00 $99 a month, the current subscription price. Held flat: Tesla has cut this price before, never raised it.
Non-subscriber revenue $95M/qtr growing +8.0% per quarter $100M a quarter of deferred one-time FSD purchases recognised, plus early OEM licensing.
FSD / Autonomy

Latest: $4.40B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $380M
2025Q3 $450M
2025Q4 $500M
2026Q1 $551M
2026Q2 $600M
2026Q3E $771M
2026Q4E $939M
2027Q1E $1.11B
2027Q2E $1.27B
2027Q3E $1.44B
2027Q4E $1.61B
2028Q1E $1.78B
2028Q2E $1.95B
2028Q3E $2.12B
2028Q4E $2.30B
2029Q1E $2.48B
2029Q2E $2.67B
2029Q3E $2.86B
2029Q4E $3.05B
2030Q1E $3.26B
2030Q2E $3.47B
2030Q3E $3.69B
2030Q4E $3.91B
2031Q1E $4.15B
2031Q2E $4.40B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Subscribers penetrate a GROWING fleet toward a 90% attach ceiling, so growth slows for two reasons in sequence: first as attach saturates the cars already sold, then because further growth can only come from new deliveries. Once penetration flattens near 90% this line tracks vehicle sales, which is what the automotive vertical above is already modelling.
  • TAM is the HW4-capable fleet, 6M at the basis quarter growing 4.9% a quarter, not the whole installed base: older cars lack the compute and retrofitting has never been offered at scale. Raise the growth rate if you think hardware upgrades become a product.
  • Margin is 88% because this is software delivered over an existing connection to hardware the customer already bought. Capex is nominal — the training compute is carried at the corporate level, not here.
  • The load-bearing assumption is regulatory, and it is not in any slider on this page: the ramp encodes approvals arriving steadily. A single jurisdiction blocking unsupervised indefinitely would break the ceiling, not the ramp.
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