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SPCX News
R40 coverage for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX).
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SpaceX's New Contract Annualises to $13.3 Billion. Its CFO Says These Deals Are Six-Month Commits.
Bret Johnsen put $1.11B a month and $13.3B of ARR on the record, then described SpaceX's compute deals as 90-day with a 90-day out — roughly six-month commits.
India's Proposed Satellite Rate Takes 13% of Starlink's Revenue. SpaceX Asked for Under 1%.
The reported 5% spectrum charge sits on top of an 8% licence fee. SpaceX and Kuiper asked for under 1% with no other charges. TRAI refused the 5% in December.
Three Vendors Publish Wall Street's SpaceX Range. The Averages Differ by $10. The Highs Differ by $350.
Three data vendors published Wall Street's SpaceX panel this week. Their average targets sit within $10.01; their high targets are $450 and $800.
SpaceX Borrows at 5.35%. Its New $220 Target Needs 20 to 50 Flights From Ships That Have Never Flown Twice.
Pivotal initiated SpaceX at Buy with a $220 target resting on 20–50 flights per Starship. Zero ships have flown twice. Its June notes priced at 5.35–6.65%.
Terafab's Eight Texas Tax Agreements Forgo $1.66 Billion of School Revenue. The Job Floor Is Eighty.
Texas published the numbers behind all eight Terafab tax agreements: $1.66bn of school revenue forgone to 2046, against a statutory floor of ten jobs each.
Anthropic Doesn't Trade. It Is Already a $53.4B Line in Amazon's Quarter and Two-Thirds of Microsoft's Beat.
Amazon booked $53.4 billion primarily from its Anthropic stake, and a $3.2 billion gain was two-thirds of Microsoft's beat. The IPO reprices both at once.
SpaceX May Cut Turbine Delays by 18 Months. Musk Says 15 GW of 2027 AI Could Still Sit Dark.
SpaceX is preparing to cast gas-turbine blades in Texas. Musk's APR fleet exceeds 1.1 GW, but that is only about 7.3% of the 15 GW he says may sit dark in 2027.
Starlink Matched Seven Rivals' 2025 Revenue. Our 2027 Case Is 2.7 Times That Total
Seven satellite rivals generated $11.457B in fiscal 2025, matching Starlink's $11.4B. Our weekly-Starship case reaches $17.1B in 2026 and $30.8B in 2027.
Our Weekly-Starship Model Takes Starlink From $4.29 Billion to $9.04 Billion a Quarter
At 60 V3 satellites per weekly Starship flight, our sublinear model lifts equivalent network capacity 4.4x and quarterly revenue to $9.04 billion by late 2027.
Nvidia's Megawatt Got 60% More Expensive and 30 Times More Productive in One Generation.
Nvidia disclosed both curves: a megawatt went $25m to $40m and got 30x more productive. Revenue per megawatt holds only if token prices fall less than 30x.
Rocket Lab Values Iridium's Spectrum at $3.32B—More Than the Entire Constellation.
Rocket Lab's merger filing marks Iridium's spectrum at $3.32B — 43.7% of the price, 1.72x the constellation, and more than Iridium's pre-leak market value.
Deutsche Bank's $100 Billion SpaceX Run Rate Implies a December Bigger Than All of Q2
Deutsche Bank's $100B SpaceX run rate is December revenue annualised: $8.33B in one month, more than the whole June quarter — nearly half of it in neocloud.
SpaceX Uses Megapacks to Tame Its Gigawatt. Bloom Energy Sells the Megawatts Before the Grid Arrives.
Tesla Megapacks stabilize volatile AI loads; Bloom fuel cells generate onsite before the grid arrives. Where each wins, and why data centers will use both.
Rocket Lab Is Buying $884 Million of Iridium Revenue at 9x Sales. Its Own Enterprise Value Sits at 58x.
Rocket Lab is paying 9.0x sales for Iridium — revenue 115% of its own — with stock valued at 57.6x. The collar moves the mix only between 4.0% and 6.6%.
SpaceX Paid $19.6B for Pre-Revenue Spectrum. Our Model Breaks Even at 23M Handsets.
SpaceX's $19.6B EchoStar spectrum buys a vertical our model still scores at zero for six quarters. Break-even is 23.2M monetised handsets against 74.3M assumed.
Satellite Spectrum: What the Bands Are, How the Licences Are Won, and Who Holds What
A first-principles guide: what each satellite band is for, why orbit decides which bands work, how the ITU hands out transmit rights, and who holds what today.
SpaceX Has 28 Starlink Gateway Applications. They Cover 9%–20% of Our Modeled Growth.
Each Starlink gateway antenna carries 2,700-6,000 subscribers. Our model's path to 45.7M subscribers needs 5,600-12,600 more antennas — and Iridium objects.
SpaceX's 8,000-Launch Ladder Is Worth $314 a Share in Our Model. Next Year's Rung Is $7.47.
SpaceX's stated ladder reaches 8,000 launches in 2030; our model's reaches 374. Feeding the company's numbers in moves fair value from $187.12 to $500.93.
Today's SpaceX Unlock Is 2.4% of the Company. The One in June 2027 Is 49%.
A lock-up releases a share of the locked pool, not the company — for SpaceX the readings differ 2.9x, and a missed $175.50 trigger grew the December tranche.
Taking Half of Anthropic and OpenAI's Revenue Would Be Worth $27.84 a Share to SpaceX
Anthropic and OpenAI booked a combined $18.3B last quarter, 2.3x all of SpaceX. Grok taking half over five years moves our model only $172.13 to $199.97.
What 2.25M Tonnes a Year Buys: Half Starlink, Half Compute and 31 Starship Launches a Day
SpaceX's 2.25M tonnes-a-year target, split as our model splits it, is 31 to 62 Starship launches a day and 225,000 AI satellites a year — from 0.43 today.
Starlink's 7,000 Aircraft Are Not 7,000 Aircraft, and the 1,400 Everyone Quotes Is From Last Year's Report
Starlink's 7,000 aircraft count equipped, installing and merely contracted together — and the 1,400 installed figure beside it comes from last year's report.
GitHub Was Microsoft's Best Acquisition. SpaceX Just Shipped Cursor's First Gem At It.
Microsoft's $7.5B GitHub ran 30 hours of incidents in a month, and SpaceX-owned Cursor shipped Origin during the outage. GitHub is under 1% of Microsoft.
Tesla Has About 34 Million Square Feet. SpaceX Has About 5. Terafab Alone Is 100 Million.
Musk has over twenty production buildings in flight across Tesla and SpaceX; Terafab alone is bigger than all of them combined. Every site, on a build ladder.
Nvidia's Disclosed Stock Portfolio Grew $45 Billion Last Quarter. It Bought One Thing.
Nvidia's Q2 13F shows eight positions worth $63.4B, up $45B in a quarter. Seven share counts are unchanged: the move is one new position and Intel tripling.
AST SpaceMobile Burned $695M in One Quarter. Its $3.7B Cash Covers Five More.
AST SpaceMobile burned $694.8M in the June quarter against $31.5M of revenue. Its $3.7B pro forma cash covers 5.3 quarters; the $1.3B backlog buys 1.9 more.
SpaceX Has Bought $835 Million of Megapacks. Musk's 10 GW Target Needs Nine to Twenty-Four Times That.
SpaceX's 10-Q discloses $295M of Tesla Megapacks in Q2 and $329M in the half. The widely shared $1.1B total double-counts. The 10 GW build needs 32 to 88 GWh.
SpaceX's First Print Answered the AI Question and Made the Cash Question Unanswerable
SpaceX's first print: revenue $7,814M up 92%, AI revenue up 247%, net loss $541M — and $18,369M of capex in one quarter, with no cash-flow line published.
Shotwell Put the Big Three at $600B. Revenue Is $352B, and the Traffic Math Says They Survive.
Shotwell sized the US carriers at $600B a year. Their 2025 revenue was $352.1B. Three scenarios for Starlink's share of internet traffic by 2031.
SpaceX (SPCX): What We Know Before Its First Earnings Report as a Public Company
SpaceX IPO'd in June at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest offering in history — and the stock is now down roughly 50% from its post-IPO peak, trading below the IPO price itself. Its first earnings report lands August 4. Here's the full picture: the business split, the valuation debate, and the two dates that matter most.
The AI Capex Bet, Six Months In: What the Mag 7 Actually Spent (and What the Market Learned)
Our February call was a $700B AI capex arms race. Six months and a full Q2 earnings season later, actual guidance has blown past that number, free cash flow is cratering at multiple hyperscalers, and the market has started rewarding capex very differently depending on who's spending it. Here's what changed.