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SPCX · Forward model
Revenue by vertical, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
SpaceX reports three segments; this model carries six. Connectivity is split into Starlink and Starlink Mobile, AI into Terrestrial AI and Space AI, and Developer Platform is added outright, because each pair mixes two businesses with different economics and very different risk. Starlink is the dish-and-antenna business - broadband, enterprise, maritime, aviation, rail, Starshield and today's light direct-to-cell messaging - modelled bottom-up on subscribers x ARPU. Starlink Mobile is the enhanced direct-to-handset tier that the V2 Mobile satellites and the EchoStar spectrum unlock, and it earns nothing until 2028 Q1. Terrestrial AI is modelled on energised compute capacity x utilisation x price, because revenue there is gated by what is switched on rather than by demand; Space AI on the same shape but from zero, with six quarters of no revenue before the first demonstrator earns anything; Space carries only EXTERNAL launch and Dragon revenue, modelled on flights x price (internal Starlink launches are not segment revenue). The two new verticals have NO reported history and no carved-out base. SpaceX has never published a sub-split of Connectivity or of AI, so rather than invent one, the actuals stay cut the way they were reported and both new lines start from zero in the projection. Only 2026 Q2 is a reported segment split ($4.29B / $0.96B / $2.56B, $7.81B total). The 2025 quarters are apportioned from the disclosed full-year segment totals ($11.4B / $4.1B / $3.2B) and 2026 Q1 is apportioned from the reported $4.694B consolidated quarter - every one of those is marked ESTIMATED on this page. Developer Platform is Cursor and Origin, acquired for $60B in all stock and closed August 14, 2026 — after the end of every quarter shown here, which is why it is zero across the whole reported history and starts earning in 2026 Q3.
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Latest: $59.77B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4.30B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.58B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.80B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.02B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.69B |
| 2026Q2 | $7.81B |
| 2026Q3E | $10.04B |
| 2026Q4E | $11.34B |
| 2027Q1E | $12.73B |
| 2027Q2E | $14.19B |
| 2027Q3E | $15.74B |
| 2027Q4E | $17.37B |
| 2028Q1E | $19.23B |
| 2028Q2E | $21.24B |
| 2028Q3E | $23.40B |
| 2028Q4E | $25.72B |
| 2029Q1E | $28.19B |
| 2029Q2E | $30.84B |
| 2029Q3E | $33.65B |
| 2029Q4E | $36.65B |
| 2030Q1E | $39.83B |
| 2030Q2E | $43.34B |
| 2030Q3E | $47.07B |
| 2030Q4E | $51.05B |
| 2031Q1E | $55.28B |
| 2031Q2E | $59.77B |
Where each case comes from
Elon case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Elon column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Non-human traffic will dominate
Only Starlink can carry it
Market share and revenue potential
Capacity leap: V3 and beyond
- Aug 8, 2026 V3 satellites are an order of magnitude more capable and an order of magnitude more will be launched — >100X the bandwidth. Even at 10X lower revenue per gigabit, communications revenue >$200B a year.
- Aug 9, 2026 Total constellation including direct-to-cell to exceed 100k satellites. Future versions may exceed 50X the throughput of a V2.
Orbital compute
The $1T company target
- Jun 14, 2026 I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030
- Jun 14, 2026 And I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than $1T in 2031
- Aug 8, 2026 Clarifies the $1T target is actual revenue in the year 2030 itself, not cumulative, and that these are internal projections.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 11.0% a year with an exit multiple of 20.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | −$69.61B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $213.17B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $96.36B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 20.0x |
| Terminal value | $4.26T |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $2.53T |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 103% |
| Enterprise value | $2.46T |
| Net cash | $5.00B |
| Equity value | $2.47T |
| Shares | 13.18B |
| Fair value per share | $187.12 |
| Against the deployed price of $150.86, as of | +24% |
20x is above what the current share price implies, which is about 14x. It is held there because the terminal year is still growing near 40% with a rising mix of connectivity and compute revenue, which is a different business from the one the trailing multiple is priced against. It is still the largest single input in the model, and the least derivable from the operating assumptions above — treat the fair value as a function of this number first and everything else second.
Read the other way round: at $150.86 the market is paying 16.2x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Terafab phase 1 (SpaceX share)
2028 Q1 → 2030 Q4The joint Tesla/SpaceX advanced fab, $16.8B announced for phase 1. SpaceX leads the large-scale manufacturing portion, so 60% is assumed here. County filings point to a far larger build-out — $55B for a first phase and up to $119B complete — which this line deliberately does NOT carry.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Starlink | Starlink Mobile | Space | Terrestrial AI | Space AI | Model layer | Developer Platform | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $4.68B | $0 | $988M | $2.50B | $0 | $836M | $1.03B | $10.04B | +109% | $2.75B | $13.14B | −$10.39B | +6 | −$10.12B |
| 2026 Q4E | $5.10B | $0 | $1.02B | $3.03B | $0 | $1.13B | $1.06B | $11.34B | +126% | $3.30B | $13.45B | −$10.14B | +37 | −$9.63B |
| 2027 Q1E | $5.52B | $0 | $1.05B | $3.61B | $0 | $1.44B | $1.10B | $12.73B | +171% | $3.92B | $13.59B | −$9.66B | +95 | −$8.94B |
| 2027 Q2E | $5.96B | $0 | $1.08B | $4.24B | $0 | $1.76B | $1.14B | $14.19B | +82% | $4.61B | $13.62B | −$9.01B | +18 | −$8.12B |
| 2027 Q3E | $6.42B | $0 | $1.11B | $4.92B | $0 | $2.10B | $1.19B | $15.74B | +57% | $5.36B | $13.59B | −$8.23B | +5 | −$7.22B |
| 2027 Q4E | $6.89B | $0 | $1.14B | $5.66B | $0 | $2.44B | $1.24B | $17.37B | +53% | $6.17B | $13.52B | −$7.35B | +11 | −$6.29B |
| 2028 Q1E | $7.37B | $37M | $1.18B | $6.45B | $90M | $2.80B | $1.30B | $19.23B | +51% | $7.05B | $14.47B | −$7.42B | +13 | −$6.18B |
| 2028 Q2E | $7.87B | $89M | $1.21B | $7.31B | $218M | $3.18B | $1.36B | $21.24B | +50% | $8.01B | $14.63B | −$6.62B | +18 | −$5.37B |
| 2028 Q3E | $8.39B | $156M | $1.25B | $8.23B | $379M | $3.57B | $1.43B | $23.40B | +49% | $9.05B | $14.84B | −$5.79B | +24 | −$4.58B |
| 2028 Q4E | $8.93B | $235M | $1.29B | $9.22B | $569M | $3.98B | $1.50B | $25.72B | +48% | $10.18B | $15.11B | −$4.93B | +29 | −$3.80B |
| 2029 Q1E | $9.49B | $327M | $1.32B | $10.29B | $783M | $4.41B | $1.57B | $28.19B | +47% | $11.39B | $15.44B | −$4.05B | +32 | −$3.04B |
| 2029 Q2E | $10.08B | $429M | $1.36B | $11.45B | $1.02B | $4.85B | $1.65B | $30.84B | +45% | $12.70B | $15.83B | −$3.14B | +35 | −$2.29B |
| 2029 Q3E | $10.69B | $541M | $1.40B | $12.69B | $1.27B | $5.32B | $1.74B | $33.65B | +44% | $14.10B | $16.30B | −$2.20B | +37 | −$1.57B |
| 2029 Q4E | $11.34B | $662M | $1.44B | $14.04B | $1.53B | $5.82B | $1.82B | $36.65B | +43% | $15.60B | $16.84B | −$1.24B | +39 | −$863M |
| 2030 Q1E | $12.03B | $791M | $1.49B | $15.48B | $1.80B | $6.33B | $1.91B | $39.83B | +41% | $17.20B | $17.47B | −$266M | +41 | −$180M |
| 2030 Q2E | $12.87B | $928M | $1.53B | $17.05B | $2.08B | $6.87B | $2.01B | $43.34B | +41% | $18.99B | $18.21B | $656M | +42 | $432M |
| 2030 Q3E | $13.78B | $1.07B | $1.58B | $18.74B | $2.36B | $7.44B | $2.11B | $47.07B | +40% | $20.90B | $19.06B | $1.56B | +43 | $1.00B |
| 2030 Q4E | $14.75B | $1.22B | $1.62B | $20.56B | $2.64B | $8.04B | $2.21B | $51.05B | +39% | $22.94B | $20.01B | $2.49B | +44 | $1.56B |
| 2031 Q1E | $15.79B | $1.38B | $1.67B | $22.54B | $2.91B | $8.67B | $2.32B | $55.28B | +39% | $25.11B | $20.22B | $4.15B | +46 | $2.53B |
| 2031 Q2E | $16.89B | $1.54B | $1.72B | $24.67B | $3.19B | $9.34B | $2.43B | $59.77B | +38% | $27.42B | $21.39B | $5.13B | +47 | $3.04B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | — | Re-grounded the Developer Platform base on the disclosed run rate rather than on the backed-out seat count: $4B annualised is $333M a month and three months is $1.00B, which is where 4.17M seats at $80 already sat, so no level moves and no fair value changes. Recorded that Deutsche Bank's ~$12B Cursor line is that same $4B tripled to a December exit, against Cursor's own April guide of above $6B, and that the tripling belongs in Bull and Elon rather than in Base. |
| 2026-08-19 | $187.12 | Added the Model layer vertical - Grok sold as a model rather than as a megawatt, driven by the $18.85B quarterly pool x share. Fifteen points of Terrestrial AI utilisation (70% to 55%, target 82% to 67%) move here: 1,800 MW x 15% x $2.03M is the $548M a quarter Grok already runs on, so the June quarter is unchanged and only its character is. Base takes the share to 18% long run, about 12% of a $33.8B pool by 2028 Q4. Elon is pushed to a 60% terminal share of the pool, roughly $36B a quarter. |
| 2026-08-16 | $145.29 | Initial model, built off the Q2 2026 print: $7.81B consolidated revenue, 12.0M Starlink subscribers, $66 ARPU, AI segment annualising at ~$10.2B. Horizon set to 20 quarters because free cash flow does not turn positive inside a three-year window. |
| 2026-08-16 | — | Split Connectivity into Starlink and Starlink Mobile, and AI into Terrestrial AI and Space AI. Starlink keeps everything that earns money today, including the ~22M-active light direct-to-cell messaging service; Starlink Mobile carries only the enhanced tier the V2 satellites and EchoStar spectrum unlock and earns nothing before 2028 Q1. Space AI likewise starts at zero with first revenue in 2028 Q1. Neither new vertical re-cuts reported history: both are held at zero across the six reported quarters. |
| 2026-08-18 | $172.13 | Added a sixth vertical, Developer Platform, for Cursor and Origin. The $60B all-stock acquisition closed August 14, 2026, so the line is zero across every reported quarter and starts in 2026 Q3; 4.17M paid seats are backed out of the disclosed $4B run rate at an assumed $80 blended monthly price. Seat adds start at Cursor's own organic pace and the ramp is set against that path so the seats Origin wins from GitHub are worth about $0.1B a quarter by 2027 Q4. All four cases carry the line and disagree sharply about it: Bear ends below today's run rate, Elon at roughly $31B a year. Price snapshot refreshed to the August 17 close. |