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SKHY · Forward model · Others (foundry and system LSI) · Bull case

What has to happen in Others (foundry and system LSI)

Model as of

This page changes Others (foundry and system LSI) inside the complete SKHY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SKHY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $376.67 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $341M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $610M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Supply physically cannot answer inside the first half of the horizon, and the company's own schedule is the evidence: Yongin Y1's first cleanroom opens February 2027, Cheongju M17's December 2028 and Yongin Y2's June 2029, while utilisation is already pinned at 100% and production capacity compounds at about 17% a year. Omdia, quoted by the company, has DRAM and NAND bit demand growing at a 19% CAGR through 2030 - faster than SK hynix is adding capacity. In this case volume runs 2% a quarter ahead of base, margins run eight points higher, and the consolidated EBITDA margin stays in the sixties through 2028 - 68.4% in Q1 falling to 63.3% in Q4 - with a 9.5% discount rate and an 8x exit. Fair value $376.67. It is a claim about industry capacity discipline, and the last four cycles all ended when that discipline broke.

Others (foundry and system LSI)

Basis quarter$247M
Final quarter$341M
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix0%

Everything that is not a memory bit: the SK hynix system ic and SK keyfoundry foundry businesses and CMOS image sensors. Disclosed as a residual line in the revenue-by-product note. It is 0.47% of 2026 Q2 revenue and has been flat in absolute won for three years while memory went up eleven-fold, so it is carried for reconciliation, not for the thesis.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $247M Reported
2025 Q4 $278M Estimated
2026 Q1 $225M Reported
2026 Q2 $247M Reported
SK hynix system ic foundrySK keyfoundry foundryCMOS image sensorsService revenue
Sequential growth −1.5%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% -1.5% a quarter, the -6.3% annualised trend of the last four quarters against the four before them.
Others (foundry and system LSI)

Latest: $341M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $316M
2023Q2 $428M
2023Q3 $364M
2023Q4 $431M
2024Q1 $347M
2024Q2 $353M
2024Q3 $357M
2024Q4 $378M
2025Q1 $245M
2025Q2 $250M
2025Q3 $247M
2025Q4 $278M
2026Q1 $225M
2026Q2 $247M
2026Q3E $256M
2026Q4E $300M
2027Q1E $235M
2027Q2E $256M
2027Q3E $268M
2027Q4E $315M
2028Q1E $248M
2028Q2E $272M
2028Q3E $286M
2028Q4E $337M
2029Q1E $266M
2029Q2E $292M
2029Q3E $307M
2029Q4E $363M
2030Q1E $287M
2030Q2E $315M
2030Q3E $332M
2030Q4E $393M
2031Q1E $310M
2031Q2E $341M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Carried so the three disclosed lines sum to reported consolidated revenue, and for no other reason: it was 0.47% of revenue in the basis quarter, W376,105m of W79,318,746m, and it has been flat in won for twelve quarters while memory went up eleven-fold.
  • Labelled 'Others' in the Korean quarterly reports, the semi-annual report and the prospectus. The naming is inconsistent between documents; the amounts tie exactly.
  • This is the only line whose seasonality is bigger than its own noise: a December lift of about 15% across three windows with a spread of 0.067, and a March discount of about 11%. It is carried because it costs nothing, and it moves consolidated revenue by under 0.1% in any quarter.
  • The 15% EBITDA margin and 10% capex intensity are assumptions from mature-node foundry peers. No margin, capex or capacity is disclosed for this line, or for any line.
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