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SKHY · Forward model · Others (foundry and system LSI) · Song case

What has to happen in Others (foundry and system LSI)

Model as of

This page changes Others (foundry and system LSI) inside the complete SKHY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SKHY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $249.91 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $253M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $396M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

President Song Hyeon-jong's case on the 29 July call: memory has stopped being a spot commodity. Long-term agreements are finalised with around ten customers on terms of around five years - the first contracted multi-year memory volume in SK hynix's disclosure record - so the amplitude of the next downturn is damped even when spot prices fall, and the terminal margin sits above the historical mid-cycle rather than at it. Modelled as five points of margin, half a point a quarter of extra volume and a 7x exit at a 10.5% discount rate: fair value $249.91, close to the $245.43 street target. What it does not achieve: no disclosed volume floor, no disclosed price floor and no disclosed share of revenue under contract exists in any filing, so this case rests on a transcript, and it still ends the horizon with a 51.5% EBITDA margin - well below today's 81.4%.

Others (foundry and system LSI)

Basis quarter$247M
Final quarter$253M
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix0%

Everything that is not a memory bit: the SK hynix system ic and SK keyfoundry foundry businesses and CMOS image sensors. Disclosed as a residual line in the revenue-by-product note. It is 0.47% of 2026 Q2 revenue and has been flat in absolute won for three years while memory went up eleven-fold, so it is carried for reconciliation, not for the thesis.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $247M Reported
2025 Q4 $278M Estimated
2026 Q1 $225M Reported
2026 Q2 $247M Reported
SK hynix system ic foundrySK keyfoundry foundryCMOS image sensorsService revenue
Sequential growth −1.5%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% -1.5% a quarter, the -6.3% annualised trend of the last four quarters against the four before them.
Others (foundry and system LSI)

Latest: $253M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $316M
2023Q2 $428M
2023Q3 $364M
2023Q4 $431M
2024Q1 $347M
2024Q2 $353M
2024Q3 $357M
2024Q4 $378M
2025Q1 $245M
2025Q2 $250M
2025Q3 $247M
2025Q4 $278M
2026Q1 $225M
2026Q2 $247M
2026Q3E $253M
2026Q4E $291M
2027Q1E $224M
2027Q2E $241M
2027Q3E $249M
2027Q4E $288M
2028Q1E $224M
2028Q2E $241M
2028Q3E $250M
2028Q4E $291M
2029Q1E $226M
2029Q2E $244M
2029Q3E $253M
2029Q4E $295M
2030Q1E $230M
2030Q2E $249M
2030Q3E $258M
2030Q4E $301M
2031Q1E $234M
2031Q2E $253M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Carried so the three disclosed lines sum to reported consolidated revenue, and for no other reason: it was 0.47% of revenue in the basis quarter, W376,105m of W79,318,746m, and it has been flat in won for twelve quarters while memory went up eleven-fold.
  • Labelled 'Others' in the Korean quarterly reports, the semi-annual report and the prospectus. The naming is inconsistent between documents; the amounts tie exactly.
  • This is the only line whose seasonality is bigger than its own noise: a December lift of about 15% across three windows with a spread of 0.067, and a March discount of about 11%. It is carried because it costs nothing, and it moves consolidated revenue by under 0.1% in any quarter.
  • The 15% EBITDA margin and 10% capex intensity are assumptions from mature-node foundry peers. No margin, capex or capacity is disclosed for this line, or for any line.
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