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SKHY · Forward model · Others (foundry and system LSI) · Bear case

What has to happen in Others (foundry and system LSI)

Model as of

This page changes Others (foundry and system LSI) inside the complete SKHY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SKHY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $75.34 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $125M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$134M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The cycle behaves like every previous one, and this company's own filed history is the evidence: revenue was W5,088,111m in 2023 Q1 against W79,318,746m in 2026 Q2, and in 2023 Q3 it reported an operating loss of W1.792 trillion on a negative 20% operating margin - four consecutive loss-making quarters. NAND revenue fell 31% quarter on quarter as recently as 2025 Q1. The long-term agreements cover around ten customers but disclose no volume floor and no price floor, so nothing in the record prevents a repeat. Here revenue peaks at $86.3bn a quarter in 2028 Q1 and falls to $61.4bn by 2031 Q2, with the EBITDA margin ending at 36.5% - close to the 35% operating margin the company actually earned across 2024 - and the exit multiple cut to 4x at a 14% discount rate. Fair value $75.34. What this case does NOT assume is a loss: capex stays at the guided pace because Y2 and M17 are already committed to 2031.

Others (foundry and system LSI)

Basis quarter$247M
Final quarter$125M
Implied CAGR−13%
Final revenue mix0%

Everything that is not a memory bit: the SK hynix system ic and SK keyfoundry foundry businesses and CMOS image sensors. Disclosed as a residual line in the revenue-by-product note. It is 0.47% of 2026 Q2 revenue and has been flat in absolute won for three years while memory went up eleven-fold, so it is carried for reconciliation, not for the thesis.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $247M Reported
2025 Q4 $278M Estimated
2026 Q1 $225M Reported
2026 Q2 $247M Reported
SK hynix system ic foundrySK keyfoundry foundryCMOS image sensorsService revenue
Sequential growth −1.5%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% -1.5% a quarter, the -6.3% annualised trend of the last four quarters against the four before them.
Others (foundry and system LSI)

Latest: $125M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $316M
2023Q2 $428M
2023Q3 $364M
2023Q4 $431M
2024Q1 $347M
2024Q2 $353M
2024Q3 $357M
2024Q4 $378M
2025Q1 $245M
2025Q2 $250M
2025Q3 $247M
2025Q4 $278M
2026Q1 $225M
2026Q2 $247M
2026Q3E $244M
2026Q4E $271M
2027Q1E $202M
2027Q2E $209M
2027Q3E $208M
2027Q4E $233M
2028Q1E $175M
2028Q2E $182M
2028Q3E $182M
2028Q4E $204M
2029Q1E $153M
2029Q2E $160M
2029Q3E $160M
2029Q4E $180M
2030Q1E $135M
2030Q2E $141M
2030Q3E $141M
2030Q4E $159M
2031Q1E $119M
2031Q2E $125M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Carried so the three disclosed lines sum to reported consolidated revenue, and for no other reason: it was 0.47% of revenue in the basis quarter, W376,105m of W79,318,746m, and it has been flat in won for twelve quarters while memory went up eleven-fold.
  • Labelled 'Others' in the Korean quarterly reports, the semi-annual report and the prospectus. The naming is inconsistent between documents; the amounts tie exactly.
  • This is the only line whose seasonality is bigger than its own noise: a December lift of about 15% across three windows with a spread of 0.067, and a March discount of about 11%. It is carried because it costs nothing, and it moves consolidated revenue by under 0.1% in any quarter.
  • The 15% EBITDA margin and 10% capex intensity are assumptions from mature-node foundry peers. No margin, capex or capacity is disclosed for this line, or for any line.
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