SKHY · Forward model · DRAM (including HBM) · Bull case
What has to happen in DRAM (including HBM)
Model as of
This page changes DRAM (including HBM) inside the complete SKHY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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DRAM (including HBM)
Volatile memory sold by the bit at a cycle price. 71.8% of 2026 Q2 revenue and effectively the entire profit pool. HBM is the mix within it that carries the price - SK hynix held a 56.4% revenue share of the HBM market in 2026 Q1 per IDC - but HBM revenue is not separately disclosed in any filing, so DRAM is the finest honest cut. Revenue is bits shipped times average selling price; bits are capped by installed wafer capacity running at 100% utilisation, and no new cleanroom opens before Yongin Y1 in February 2027.
Latest: $131.08B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.92B |
| 2023Q2 | $2.90B |
| 2023Q3 | $3.99B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.82B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.92B |
| 2024Q2 | $7.02B |
| 2024Q3 | $7.91B |
| 2024Q4 | $9.51B |
| 2025Q1 | $9.21B |
| 2025Q2 | $11.24B |
| 2025Q3 | $12.53B |
| 2025Q4 | $16.19B |
| 2026Q1 | $26.69B |
| 2026Q2 | $37.40B |
| 2026Q3E | $48.26B |
| 2026Q4E | $58.40B |
| 2027Q1E | $67.46B |
| 2027Q2E | $75.36B |
| 2027Q3E | $82.16B |
| 2027Q4E | $88.00B |
| 2028Q1E | $93.02B |
| 2028Q2E | $97.39B |
| 2028Q3E | $101.24B |
| 2028Q4E | $104.69B |
| 2029Q1E | $107.84B |
| 2029Q2E | $110.76B |
| 2029Q3E | $113.52B |
| 2029Q4E | $116.16B |
| 2030Q1E | $118.71B |
| 2030Q2E | $121.22B |
| 2030Q3E | $123.69B |
| 2030Q4E | $126.15B |
| 2031Q1E | $128.61B |
| 2031Q2E | $131.08B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Volume is an index, not a bit count. SK hynix never discloses absolute bits, only quarter-on-quarter percentage changes, so units are 100 at 2026 Q2 and the price per index point is that quarter's DRAM revenue of $37.40bn divided by 100.
- The June quarter's arithmetic closes on the disclosed deltas: bits about +8% times ASP about +30% is +40.4%, against actual DRAM revenue growth of +40.1%. Price is doing nearly all of it - the March quarter was +65% on shipments the company described as similar to the prior quarter.
- Bits start at the guided +10% for 2026 Q3 and glide to 4% a quarter, which is 17% a year - the rate SK hynix's own disclosed production capacity at average cost has actually compounded at (W35.2tn in 2024, W41.2tn in 2025, W48.3tn annualised in H1 2026). Utilisation was 100% for the first half of 2026, so capacity, not demand, sets shipments.
- ASP rises 15% in the first projected quarter and glides to -4%, so in this model DRAM price peaks 44.3% above the June 2026 level in 2027 Q4 and ends the horizon 6.6% below it. The turn is timed to the cleanrooms, not to a view about prices: Yongin Y1 opens February 2027, Cheongju M17 December 2028, Yongin Y2 June 2029.
- HBM revenue is not disclosed anywhere - not in the 424B4, not in the 6-Ks, not in the DART quarterly reports. IDC's 56.4% HBM share is a share of an external market, not a revenue line, so any HBM sub-line would be manufactured. This is the finest honest cut.
- The company disclosed in July 2026 that it has finalised long-term agreements with around ten customers, with a typical term of around five years. That is the first contracted multi-year memory volume in its record, and it is the whole of the Song case.