SKHY · Forward model · NAND flash · Bear case
What has to happen in NAND flash
Model as of
This page changes NAND flash inside the complete SKHY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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NAND flash
Non-volatile memory, 27.7% of 2026 Q2 revenue and the line that inflected hardest: revenue rose 90% quarter on quarter on a mid-50% ASP increase as enterprise SSD demand for AI inference key-value cache storage overwhelmed a supply base that had been cutting output through 2025. SK hynix (with Solidigm) was the second-largest NAND supplier at an 18.5% revenue share in 2026 Q1 per IDC. Same driver shape as DRAM - bits times ASP against a fixed wafer base - with a later capacity response: Cheongju M17's first cleanroom is scheduled for December 2028.
Latest: $13.29B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.11B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.47B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.59B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.17B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.89B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.40B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.27B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.09B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.12B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.10B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.27B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.08B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.60B |
| 2026Q2 | $14.41B |
| 2026Q3E | $16.56B |
| 2026Q4E | $18.27B |
| 2027Q1E | $19.52B |
| 2027Q2E | $20.32B |
| 2027Q3E | $20.75B |
| 2027Q4E | $20.86B |
| 2028Q1E | $20.73B |
| 2028Q2E | $20.42B |
| 2028Q3E | $19.98B |
| 2028Q4E | $19.45B |
| 2029Q1E | $18.86B |
| 2029Q2E | $18.24B |
| 2029Q3E | $17.59B |
| 2029Q4E | $16.94B |
| 2030Q1E | $16.30B |
| 2030Q2E | $15.66B |
| 2030Q3E | $15.04B |
| 2030Q4E | $14.44B |
| 2031Q1E | $13.85B |
| 2031Q2E | $13.29B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Same index convention as DRAM: units are 100 at 2026 Q2 and the price per index point is that quarter's NAND revenue of $14.41bn divided by 100. Bits start at the guided low-single-digit increase for 2026 Q3.
- The June quarter does NOT close on the disclosed deltas: bits +15% times ASP +55% is +78%, against actual revenue growth of +89.7%. The roughly seven-point residual is mix - eSSD and 321-layer - inside an ASP the company quotes as a blended average.
- NAND gets the harsher price path of the two lines: ASP peaks 40.9% above June 2026 in 2027 Q3 and ends the horizon 20.7% below it. The capacity answer is later than DRAM's - M17's first cleanroom is December 2028 - but the demand case is weaker too, at high-teens bit growth against DRAM's mid-20s in the company's own 2026 outlook.
- Solidigm, the former Intel NAND business, sits inside this line and is not reported separately. On 6 August 2026 the company confirmed it is reviewing measures to strengthen that business after a report of a W5 trillion pre-IPO raise, so a disposal would change this line's composition without a disclosed baseline.
- The terminal EBITDA margin is 30% against DRAM's 45%, which is an assumption, not a disclosure: no product-level margin exists in any filing. NAND revenue fell 31% quarter on quarter as recently as 2025 Q1, inside this very history.