SIEGY · Forward model · Smart Infrastructure
What has to happen in Smart Infrastructure
Model as of
This page changes Smart Infrastructure inside the complete SIEGY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Smart Infrastructure
Electrification, grid technology, electrical products and building automation - the business that sells the switchgear, transformers, busways and low-voltage products a data centre needs before a single GPU is racked. This is the line where the AI capital cycle actually reaches Siemens: third-quarter orders jumped 40% nominal to a record EUR 8.0bn on large data-centre contracts in the U.S. and Europe, against revenue of EUR 6.4bn, and management raised the fiscal 2026 comparable growth guide from 8-10% to 10-11% and the margin guide from 18-19% to 18.5-19.5% on the strength of it. Revenue is order-backlog-fed and lags the order book by several quarters.
Latest: $10.88B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $5.19B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.59B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.83B |
| 2024Q4 | $6.57B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.64B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.05B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.48B |
| 2025Q4 | $7.30B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.44B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.94B |
| 2026Q3 | $7.43B |
| 2026Q4E | $8.23B |
| 2027Q1E | $7.32B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.06B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.16B |
| 2027Q4E | $9.01B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.99B |
| 2028Q2E | $8.77B |
| 2028Q3E | $8.85B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.75B |
| 2029Q1E | $8.63B |
| 2029Q2E | $9.45B |
| 2029Q3E | $9.53B |
| 2029Q4E | $10.48B |
| 2030Q1E | $9.25B |
| 2030Q2E | $10.13B |
| 2030Q3E | $10.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $11.20B |
| 2031Q1E | $9.88B |
| 2031Q2E | $10.81B |
| 2031Q3E | $10.88B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The one vertical here where the order book leads the revenue line by enough to matter: orders of EUR 8,002m against EUR 6,387m of revenue, a 1.25 book-to-bill, on large data-centre contracts in the U.S. and Europe. Siemens raised both the growth guide (8-10% to 10-11%) and the margin guide (18-19% to 18.5-19.5%) on the strength of it.
- EBITDA margin of 21.0% is the midpoint of the raised 18.5-19.5% profit-margin guide plus the 2.0 points by which the quarter's EBITDA margin exceeded its profit margin (EUR 143m of D&A less EUR 18m of PPA on EUR 6,387m). The basis quarter printed 21.9% and the trailing year 20.7%.
- Seasonal, and on evidence rather than shape alone: the centred four-quarter test gives a signal of 0.141 against a worst window spread of 0.015, and the sequential fiscal Q3-to-Q4 step was +10.3% in fiscal 2024 and +9.4% in fiscal 2025 in euros. July to September is Siemens' year-end delivery quarter.