SIEGY · Forward model · Mobility
What has to happen in Mobility
Model as of
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Mobility
Rolling stock, rail automation, signalling and long-dated maintenance contracts. Revenue is milestone-recognised off a very long backlog: the quarter took EUR 7.6bn of orders against EUR 3.2bn of revenue, including EUR 2.2bn of Swiss double-deck trains and EUR 2.0bn of U.K. maintenance. It is the group's lowest-margin industrial business by a wide margin - 8.6% profit margin against Smart Infrastructure's 20.0% - and margin moves with project mix and provisioning, not with volume, which is why the guide is a wide 8-10%.
Latest: $4.77B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $2.91B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.06B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.81B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.62B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.17B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.35B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.49B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.76B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.69B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.55B |
| 2026Q3 | $3.77B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.34B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.08B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.27B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.99B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.58B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.30B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.49B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.19B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.80B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.50B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.70B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.39B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.02B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.71B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.91B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.58B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.24B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.91B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.12B |
| 2031Q3E | $4.77B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The lowest-margin industrial line by a wide margin: an 8.6% profit margin in the basis quarter against Smart Infrastructure's 20.0%, and it has not exceeded 9.3% in any of the eleven quarters shown. EBITDA margin of 10.0% is the midpoint of the guided 8-10% profit margin plus the 1.3 points of D&A net of PPA the basis quarter showed.
- Revenue is milestone-recognised off a very long backlog. The quarter booked EUR 7.6bn of orders against EUR 3.2bn of revenue, including EUR 2.2bn of Swiss double-deck trains and EUR 2.0bn of U.K. maintenance, so the near-term revenue path is contracted rather than forecast.
- No seasonal factors, and that costs the model something. The centred four-quarter test gives a signal of 0.124 against a worst window spread of 0.086 - the two observed fiscal fourth quarters stepped up 26% and 4.7% in euros, which is a direction without a magnitude - so the model prints a flatter fiscal 2026 Q4 than the guided year implies. The group total absorbs it; see the notes below.