SIEGY · Forward model · Smart Infrastructure · Bull case
What has to happen in Smart Infrastructure
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Smart Infrastructure
Electrification, grid technology, electrical products and building automation - the business that sells the switchgear, transformers, busways and low-voltage products a data centre needs before a single GPU is racked. This is the line where the AI capital cycle actually reaches Siemens: third-quarter orders jumped 40% nominal to a record EUR 8.0bn on large data-centre contracts in the U.S. and Europe, against revenue of EUR 6.4bn, and management raised the fiscal 2026 comparable growth guide from 8-10% to 10-11% and the margin guide from 18-19% to 18.5-19.5% on the strength of it. Revenue is order-backlog-fed and lags the order book by several quarters.
Latest: $12.50B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $5.19B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.59B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.83B |
| 2024Q4 | $6.57B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.64B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.05B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.48B |
| 2025Q4 | $7.30B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.44B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.94B |
| 2026Q3 | $7.43B |
| 2026Q4E | $8.29B |
| 2027Q1E | $7.42B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.23B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.39B |
| 2027Q4E | $9.33B |
| 2028Q1E | $8.33B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.21B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.36B |
| 2028Q4E | $10.38B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.25B |
| 2029Q2E | $10.21B |
| 2029Q3E | $10.36B |
| 2029Q4E | $11.47B |
| 2030Q1E | $10.20B |
| 2030Q2E | $11.25B |
| 2030Q3E | $11.40B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.61B |
| 2031Q1E | $11.21B |
| 2031Q2E | $12.34B |
| 2031Q3E | $12.50B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The one vertical here where the order book leads the revenue line by enough to matter: orders of EUR 8,002m against EUR 6,387m of revenue, a 1.25 book-to-bill, on large data-centre contracts in the U.S. and Europe. Siemens raised both the growth guide (8-10% to 10-11%) and the margin guide (18-19% to 18.5-19.5%) on the strength of it.
- EBITDA margin of 21.0% is the midpoint of the raised 18.5-19.5% profit-margin guide plus the 2.0 points by which the quarter's EBITDA margin exceeded its profit margin (EUR 143m of D&A less EUR 18m of PPA on EUR 6,387m). The basis quarter printed 21.9% and the trailing year 20.7%.
- Seasonal, and on evidence rather than shape alone: the centred four-quarter test gives a signal of 0.141 against a worst window spread of 0.015, and the sequential fiscal Q3-to-Q4 step was +10.3% in fiscal 2024 and +9.4% in fiscal 2025 in euros. July to September is Siemens' year-end delivery quarter.