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SIEGY · Forward model · Mobility · Bear case

What has to happen in Mobility

Model as of

This page changes Mobility inside the complete SIEGY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SIEGY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $100.14 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.90B 15% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.64B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The two things that went wrong in a record quarter get worse instead of better. Siemens Healthineers is 28% of consolidated revenue and has already had its own fiscal 2026 growth guide cut to 3.5-4.0% from 4.5-5.0% on what Siemens calls a structural, not cyclical, change in Chinese diagnostics; Mobility's profit fell 2% and its margin fell from 9.3% to 8.6% on 6% revenue growth; and currency took a full percentage point off both order and revenue growth. Take a point a quarter off growth, two points off margin, and let a conglomerate exit at 10.0x rather than the 15.85x the tape pays now, and fair value is $100.14 - 39.4% below the traded price. That is not a demand collapse: revenue still grows, at about 5% a year rather than 8%, and 73.8% of the remaining value is still the terminal.

Mobility

Basis quarter$3.77B
Final quarter$3.90B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix15%

Rolling stock, rail automation, signalling and long-dated maintenance contracts. Revenue is milestone-recognised off a very long backlog: the quarter took EUR 7.6bn of orders against EUR 3.2bn of revenue, including EUR 2.2bn of Swiss double-deck trains and EUR 2.0bn of U.K. maintenance. It is the group's lowest-margin industrial business by a wide margin - 8.6% profit margin against Smart Infrastructure's 20.0% - and margin moves with project mix and provisioning, not with volume, which is why the guide is a wide 8-10%.

Last four quarters
2025 Q4 $3.76B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.69B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.55B Reported
2026 Q3 $3.77B Reported
Rolling stockRail infrastructure and signallingCustomer service and long-term maintenanceTurnkey projects
Sequential growth +1.5%/qtr decaying toward +0.9% Compounds to 6%, the midpoint of the guided 5-7% comparable growth for fiscal 2026.
Mobility

Latest: $3.90B (2031Q3E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $2.91B
2024Q2 $3.06B
2024Q3 $2.81B
2024Q4 $3.62B
2025Q1 $3.17B
2025Q2 $3.35B
2025Q3 $3.49B
2025Q4 $3.76B
2026Q1 $3.69B
2026Q2 $3.55B
2026Q3 $3.77B
2026Q4E $4.29B
2027Q1E $4.00B
2027Q2E $4.14B
2027Q3E $3.83B
2027Q4E $4.35B
2028Q1E $4.04B
2028Q2E $4.18B
2028Q3E $3.87B
2028Q4E $4.39B
2029Q1E $4.07B
2029Q2E $4.21B
2029Q3E $3.89B
2029Q4E $4.41B
2030Q1E $4.09B
2030Q2E $4.22B
2030Q3E $3.90B
2030Q4E $4.42B
2031Q1E $4.09B
2031Q2E $4.23B
2031Q3E $3.90B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The lowest-margin industrial line by a wide margin: an 8.6% profit margin in the basis quarter against Smart Infrastructure's 20.0%, and it has not exceeded 9.3% in any of the eleven quarters shown. EBITDA margin of 10.0% is the midpoint of the guided 8-10% profit margin plus the 1.3 points of D&A net of PPA the basis quarter showed.
  • Revenue is milestone-recognised off a very long backlog. The quarter booked EUR 7.6bn of orders against EUR 3.2bn of revenue, including EUR 2.2bn of Swiss double-deck trains and EUR 2.0bn of U.K. maintenance, so the near-term revenue path is contracted rather than forecast.
  • No seasonal factors, and that costs the model something. The centred four-quarter test gives a signal of 0.124 against a worst window spread of 0.086 - the two observed fiscal fourth quarters stepped up 26% and 4.7% in euros, which is a direction without a magnitude - so the model prints a flatter fiscal 2026 Q4 than the guided year implies. The group total absorbs it; see the notes below.
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