SIEGY · Forward model · Digital Industries · Bull case
What has to happen in Digital Industries
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Digital Industries
Factory automation hardware plus the industrial-software stack Siemens has spent $10.6bn on Altair and a further sum on Dotmatics to build. The automation half is a short-cycle, distributor-fed business that spent fiscal 2024 and 2025 working off a customer inventory glut - revenue fell from $5,268m in FY2024 Q3 to $4,323m in FY2025 Q1 - and has now recovered to $5,737m. The software half, EUR 1,790m of the quarter's revenue and growing 15% comparable, is what the margin story rests on: it carries the highest gross margin in the group and is the reason management guides an FY2026 profit margin of 17-19% on a business that earned 14.5% a year ago.
Latest: $9.07B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.91B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.89B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.27B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.03B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.32B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.51B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.01B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.88B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.27B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.41B |
| 2026Q3 | $5.74B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.07B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.56B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.91B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.37B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.73B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.14B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.52B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.01B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.39B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.73B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.13B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.67B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.07B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.34B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.78B |
| 2030Q3E | $8.35B |
| 2030Q4E | $8.78B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.99B |
| 2031Q2E | $8.45B |
| 2031Q3E | $9.07B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- EBITDA margin is not the 20.4% the basis quarter printed. It is the midpoint of Siemens' guided 17-19% fiscal 2026 DI profit margin plus the 1.7 points by which the quarter's EBITDA margin exceeded its profit margin - EUR 192m of depreciation and amortisation less EUR 110m of purchase-price-allocation amortisation on EUR 4,932m of revenue. The trailing four quarters ran at 19.3%.
- This line already fell 18% peak to trough inside the eleven quarters shown - $5,268m in fiscal 2024 Q3 down to $4,323m in fiscal 2025 Q1 - on an automation inventory destock, with no recession behind it. That cycle, not a calendar, is why the seasonality test on this vertical returns no usable shape.
- The quarter carried EUR 35m of Altair and Dotmatics integration cost, which Siemens says cut the DI profit margin by 0.7 percentage points. Siemens has not said when that cost stops, so the terminal margin of 21.5% assumes it does.