SIEGY · Forward model · Siemens Healthineers · Bull case
What has to happen in Siemens Healthineers
Model as of
This page changes Siemens Healthineers inside the complete SIEGY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Siemens Healthineers
The listed medical-technology subsidiary Siemens owns roughly 67% of and still fully consolidates: imaging, precision therapy (Varian) and diagnostics. It is 28% of group revenue and the only vertical here whose growth guide has been cut this year - Healthineers took its own fiscal 2026 comparable growth outlook down to 3.5-4.0% from 4.5-5.0% on diagnostics weakness in China. It is also the vertical with a dated structural exit: Siemens intends to deconsolidate it by spinning off 30% of the shares to its own shareholders, with the vote at the February 2027 annual meeting.
Latest: $9.19B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $5.57B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.90B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.84B |
| 2024Q4 | $6.95B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.85B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.22B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.42B |
| 2025Q4 | $7.39B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.29B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.65B |
| 2026Q3 | $6.70B |
| 2026Q4E | $7.74B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.72B |
| 2027Q2E | $7.36B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.15B |
| 2027Q4E | $8.25B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.16B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.84B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.62B |
| 2028Q4E | $8.78B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.63B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.35B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.11B |
| 2029Q4E | $9.35B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.12B |
| 2030Q2E | $8.88B |
| 2030Q3E | $8.63B |
| 2030Q4E | $9.95B |
| 2031Q1E | $8.64B |
| 2031Q2E | $9.46B |
| 2031Q3E | $9.19B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 22.0% EBITDA margin the basis quarter printed is not used. Siemens attributes the profitability rise primarily to positive effects from U.S. tariff refunds, and Healthineers cut its own fiscal 2026 revenue guide in the same week, so the model uses the trailing four-quarter 19.1% rounded to 19.5%.
- The only vertical whose guidance was cut this year: Healthineers now expects fiscal 2026 comparable revenue growth of 3.5% to 4.0%, down from 4.5% to 5.0%, on a diagnostics decline Siemens attributes in part to a structural change in the market environment in China - structural, not cyclical, in the company's own words.
- This line is 28% of consolidated revenue and Siemens has said it intends to stop consolidating it. That is not modelled, and the reason is in the model notes: the spin-off is unapproved, every series on the stock page behind this model is consolidated, and deleting the revenue without crediting shareholders with the Healthineers shares they would receive would misstate value rather than correct it.
- Seasonal on the same evidence as Smart Infrastructure: signal 0.159 against a worst window spread of 0.014, with fiscal Q4 the year-end delivery quarter for imaging equipment.