ORCL · Forward model · Software support
What has to happen in Software support
Model as of
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Software support
Basis quarter$4.89B
Final quarter$4.37B
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix8%
The annuity under the old Oracle: maintenance on the on-premise licence base, about $19.8B a year and essentially flat for three years. It funds everything else. It declines slowly as customers migrate to cloud, and the migration is visible in the licence line above it rather than here, because support attrition lags licence attrition by years.
Last four quarters
2026 Q2
$4.94B
Reported
2026 Q3
$4.97B
Reported
2026 Q4
$4.94B
Reported
2027 Q1
$4.89B
Reported
Maintenance and support on on-premise licences
Sequential growth
0.0%/qtr
decaying toward −1.0%
Support revenue moved between -0.5% and +0.7% sequentially in each of the last eight reported quarters.
Software support
Latest: $4.37B (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4.90B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.87B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.80B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.96B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.96B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.94B |
| 2026Q3 | $4.97B |
| 2026Q4 | $4.94B |
| 2027Q1 | $4.89B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.89B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.89B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.88B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.87B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.85B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.83B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.81B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.78B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.76B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.73B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.70B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.66B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.63B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.60B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.56B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.52B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.49B |
| 2031Q3E | $4.45B |
| 2031Q4E | $4.41B |
| 2032Q1E | $4.37B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Flat is the finding, not an absence of one: $19.5B, $19.5B and $19.8B across FY2024 to FY2026 while licence revenue fell 9% in the last year. Support has not yet followed licence down, and when it does it takes roughly 85 cents of segment margin per dollar with it.
- The margin assigned here is the single largest cost assumption in the brief. Oracle publishes one margin for all of cloud and software, so an 85% support margin and a 27% infrastructure margin are a judgement about mix, constrained only by having to average back to the disclosed blend.