← ORCL forward model

ORCL · Forward model · Software support · Bull case

What has to happen in Software support

Model as of

This page changes Software support inside the complete ORCL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ORCL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $302.63 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.37B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $62.83B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Oracle's own five-year infrastructure plan lands: $32B, $73B, $114B and $144B of OCI revenue through FY2030, underwritten by the $638B book and the 31% company CAGR reconfirmed at Q4. What this case does NOT reach is the whole headline — $638B of RPO is a five-year-plus book, only 12% of which converts in the next twelve months, so even here most of the contract value sits beyond the horizon rather than inside it. A scenario tilt is not a re-derived build schedule: this case lands near the published OCI path at fiscal 2030 and below it in fiscal 2028, because a growth delta scales revenue rather than rebuilding the megawatt ramp.

Software support

Basis quarter$4.89B
Final quarter$4.37B
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix6%

The annuity under the old Oracle: maintenance on the on-premise licence base, about $19.8B a year and essentially flat for three years. It funds everything else. It declines slowly as customers migrate to cloud, and the migration is visible in the licence line above it rather than here, because support attrition lags licence attrition by years.

Last four quarters
2026 Q2 $4.94B Reported
2026 Q3 $4.97B Reported
2026 Q4 $4.94B Reported
2027 Q1 $4.89B Reported
Maintenance and support on on-premise licences
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward −1.0% Support revenue moved between -0.5% and +0.7% sequentially in each of the last eight reported quarters.
Software support

Latest: $4.37B (2032Q1E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $4.90B
2025Q2 $4.87B
2025Q3 $4.80B
2025Q4 $4.96B
2026Q1 $4.96B
2026Q2 $4.94B
2026Q3 $4.97B
2026Q4 $4.94B
2027Q1 $4.89B
2027Q2E $4.89B
2027Q3E $4.89B
2027Q4E $4.88B
2028Q1E $4.87B
2028Q2E $4.85B
2028Q3E $4.83B
2028Q4E $4.81B
2029Q1E $4.78B
2029Q2E $4.76B
2029Q3E $4.73B
2029Q4E $4.70B
2030Q1E $4.66B
2030Q2E $4.63B
2030Q3E $4.60B
2030Q4E $4.56B
2031Q1E $4.52B
2031Q2E $4.49B
2031Q3E $4.45B
2031Q4E $4.41B
2032Q1E $4.37B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Flat is the finding, not an absence of one: $19.5B, $19.5B and $19.8B across FY2024 to FY2026 while licence revenue fell 9% in the last year. Support has not yet followed licence down, and when it does it takes roughly 85 cents of segment margin per dollar with it.
  • The margin assigned here is the single largest cost assumption in the brief. Oracle publishes one margin for all of cloud and software, so an 85% support margin and a 27% infrastructure margin are a judgement about mix, constrained only by having to average back to the disclosed blend.
ORCL model map

Explore another vertical