ORCL · Forward model · Hardware
What has to happen in Hardware
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Hardware
Basis quarter$774M
Final quarter$879M
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix2%
Engineered systems, servers and storage — Exadata and its relatives, $3.1B in FY2026 and up 5%, the first growth in years as Exadata rides the database business into cloud. Small, seasonal, and profitable at a 65% segment margin, but structurally a supporting act.
Last four quarters
2026 Q2
$776M
Reported
2026 Q3
$714M
Reported
2026 Q4
$924M
Reported
2027 Q1
$774M
Reported
Engineered systems (Exadata)Servers and storageHardware support
Sequential growth
+1.2%/qtr
decaying toward +0.5%
About 5% annually, matching FY2026; seasonality handles the recurring Q4-to-Q1 reset.
Hardware
Latest: $879M (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $655M |
| 2025Q2 | $728M |
| 2025Q3 | $703M |
| 2025Q4 | $850M |
| 2026Q1 | $670M |
| 2026Q2 | $776M |
| 2026Q3 | $714M |
| 2026Q4 | $924M |
| 2027Q1 | $774M |
| 2027Q2E | $888M |
| 2027Q3E | $845M |
| 2027Q4E | $1.07B |
| 2028Q1E | $805M |
| 2028Q2E | $919M |
| 2028Q3E | $871M |
| 2028Q4E | $1.10B |
| 2029Q1E | $826M |
| 2029Q2E | $942M |
| 2029Q3E | $892M |
| 2029Q4E | $1.12B |
| 2030Q1E | $844M |
| 2030Q2E | $962M |
| 2030Q3E | $911M |
| 2030Q4E | $1.14B |
| 2031Q1E | $862M |
| 2031Q2E | $982M |
| 2031Q3E | $930M |
| 2031Q4E | $1.17B |
| 2032Q1E | $879M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is one of only two verticals whose margin is disclosed rather than assumed: the 10-K reports hardware segment operating income of $2,017M on $3,084M of revenue, a 65.4% margin that has held within a point for three fiscal years.
- The line turned positive in FY2026 after years of decline, growing 5%. Oracle attributes that to Exadata demand pulled along by the database business, which makes it a lagging read on the same thing the infrastructure line measures. Two years of trend-adjusted quarterly factors now carry the recurring Q4 peak without forcing a Q1 contraction into the growth rate.