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What has to happen in Hardware

Model as of

This page changes Hardware inside the complete ORCL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ORCL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $302.63 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $879M 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $9.48B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Oracle's own five-year infrastructure plan lands: $32B, $73B, $114B and $144B of OCI revenue through FY2030, underwritten by the $638B book and the 31% company CAGR reconfirmed at Q4. What this case does NOT reach is the whole headline — $638B of RPO is a five-year-plus book, only 12% of which converts in the next twelve months, so even here most of the contract value sits beyond the horizon rather than inside it. A scenario tilt is not a re-derived build schedule: this case lands near the published OCI path at fiscal 2030 and below it in fiscal 2028, because a growth delta scales revenue rather than rebuilding the megawatt ramp.

Hardware

Basis quarter$774M
Final quarter$879M
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix1%

Engineered systems, servers and storage — Exadata and its relatives, $3.1B in FY2026 and up 5%, the first growth in years as Exadata rides the database business into cloud. Small, seasonal, and profitable at a 65% segment margin, but structurally a supporting act.

Last four quarters
2026 Q2 $776M Reported
2026 Q3 $714M Reported
2026 Q4 $924M Reported
2027 Q1 $774M Reported
Engineered systems (Exadata)Servers and storageHardware support
Sequential growth +1.2%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% About 5% annually, matching FY2026; seasonality handles the recurring Q4-to-Q1 reset.
Hardware

Latest: $879M (2032Q1E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $655M
2025Q2 $728M
2025Q3 $703M
2025Q4 $850M
2026Q1 $670M
2026Q2 $776M
2026Q3 $714M
2026Q4 $924M
2027Q1 $774M
2027Q2E $888M
2027Q3E $845M
2027Q4E $1.07B
2028Q1E $805M
2028Q2E $919M
2028Q3E $871M
2028Q4E $1.10B
2029Q1E $826M
2029Q2E $942M
2029Q3E $892M
2029Q4E $1.12B
2030Q1E $844M
2030Q2E $962M
2030Q3E $911M
2030Q4E $1.14B
2031Q1E $862M
2031Q2E $982M
2031Q3E $930M
2031Q4E $1.17B
2032Q1E $879M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is one of only two verticals whose margin is disclosed rather than assumed: the 10-K reports hardware segment operating income of $2,017M on $3,084M of revenue, a 65.4% margin that has held within a point for three fiscal years.
  • The line turned positive in FY2026 after years of decline, growing 5%. Oracle attributes that to Exadata demand pulled along by the database business, which makes it a lagging read on the same thing the infrastructure line measures. Two years of trend-adjusted quarterly factors now carry the recurring Q4 peak without forcing a Q1 contraction into the growth rate.
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