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What has to happen in Software license

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This page changes Software license inside the complete ORCL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ORCL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $302.63 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $373M 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $11.01B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Oracle's own five-year infrastructure plan lands: $32B, $73B, $114B and $144B of OCI revenue through FY2030, underwritten by the $638B book and the 31% company CAGR reconfirmed at Q4. What this case does NOT reach is the whole headline — $638B of RPO is a five-year-plus book, only 12% of which converts in the next twelve months, so even here most of the contract value sits beyond the horizon rather than inside it. A scenario tilt is not a re-derived build schedule: this case lands near the published OCI path at fiscal 2030 and below it in fiscal 2028, because a growth delta scales revenue rather than rebuilding the megawatt ramp.

Software license

Basis quarter$655M
Final quarter$373M
Implied CAGR−11%
Final revenue mix1%

New on-premise licence sales, in structural decline as the installed base migrates to cloud: $4.7B in FY2026, down 9%. It is small and shrinking, but it matters twice over — it is the leading indicator for the support annuity beneath it, and it is violently seasonal, with a fourth quarter roughly twice the size of a first quarter.

Last four quarters
2026 Q2 $939M Reported
2026 Q3 $1.15B Reported
2026 Q4 $1.88B Reported
2027 Q1 $655M Reported
New on-premise and cloud licence sales
Sequential growth −2.3%/qtr decaying toward −3.0% About -9% annually, matching FY2026; seasonality handles the Q4-to-Q1 reset separately.
Software license

Latest: $373M (2032Q1E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $870M
2025Q2 $1.20B
2025Q3 $1.13B
2025Q4 $2.01B
2026Q1 $766M
2026Q2 $939M
2026Q3 $1.15B
2026Q4 $1.88B
2027Q1 $655M
2027Q2E $840M
2027Q3E $888M
2027Q4E $1.49B
2028Q1E $593M
2028Q2E $758M
2028Q3E $799M
2028Q4E $1.34B
2029Q1E $532M
2029Q2E $678M
2029Q3E $714M
2029Q4E $1.19B
2030Q1E $474M
2030Q2E $604M
2030Q3E $635M
2030Q4E $1.06B
2031Q1E $421M
2031Q2E $536M
2031Q3E $563M
2031Q4E $939M
2032Q1E $373M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the most seasonal line Oracle reports: 870, 1195, 1129, 2007 through FY2025 and 766, 939, 1150, 1881 through FY2026. The four factors average to one and are derived from both years after removing each year's annual trend, so the Q4 peak and Q1 reset no longer distort the growth input.
  • The first-quarter growth input now represents the underlying annual decline rather than a one-quarter reset from the fiscal Q4 peak. At -2.3% a quarter it reproduces roughly the 9% decline reported for FY2026 before gliding toward the -3% terminal rate.
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