ORCL · Forward model · Software license · Bear case
What has to happen in Software license
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Software license
Basis quarter$655M
Final quarter$276M
Implied CAGR−16%
Final revenue mix1%
New on-premise licence sales, in structural decline as the installed base migrates to cloud: $4.7B in FY2026, down 9%. It is small and shrinking, but it matters twice over — it is the leading indicator for the support annuity beneath it, and it is violently seasonal, with a fourth quarter roughly twice the size of a first quarter.
Last four quarters
2026 Q2
$939M
Reported
2026 Q3
$1.15B
Reported
2026 Q4
$1.88B
Reported
2027 Q1
$655M
Reported
New on-premise and cloud licence sales
Sequential growth
−2.3%/qtr
decaying toward −3.0%
About -9% annually, matching FY2026; seasonality handles the Q4-to-Q1 reset separately.
Software license
Latest: $276M (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $870M |
| 2025Q2 | $1.20B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.13B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.01B |
| 2026Q1 | $766M |
| 2026Q2 | $939M |
| 2026Q3 | $1.15B |
| 2026Q4 | $1.88B |
| 2027Q1 | $655M |
| 2027Q2E | $827M |
| 2027Q3E | $861M |
| 2027Q4E | $1.42B |
| 2028Q1E | $559M |
| 2028Q2E | $703M |
| 2028Q3E | $730M |
| 2028Q4E | $1.20B |
| 2029Q1E | $471M |
| 2029Q2E | $592M |
| 2029Q3E | $614M |
| 2029Q4E | $1.01B |
| 2030Q1E | $395M |
| 2030Q2E | $496M |
| 2030Q3E | $514M |
| 2030Q4E | $844M |
| 2031Q1E | $330M |
| 2031Q2E | $414M |
| 2031Q3E | $429M |
| 2031Q4E | $705M |
| 2032Q1E | $276M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the most seasonal line Oracle reports: 870, 1195, 1129, 2007 through FY2025 and 766, 939, 1150, 1881 through FY2026. The four factors average to one and are derived from both years after removing each year's annual trend, so the Q4 peak and Q1 reset no longer distort the growth input.
- The first-quarter growth input now represents the underlying annual decline rather than a one-quarter reset from the fiscal Q4 peak. At -2.3% a quarter it reproduces roughly the 9% decline reported for FY2026 before gliding toward the -3% terminal rate.