NOK · Forward model · Optical Networks
What has to happen in Optical Networks
Model as of
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Optical Networks
Basis quarter€868M
Final quarter€1.63B
Implied CAGR+13%
Final revenue mix25%
Optical transport and data-centre interconnect - the line the AI and cloud build-out actually buys. Net sales grew 20% year on year on a constant-currency basis in 2026 Q2 and Nokia is adding US manufacturing capacity (San Jose fab ramping in Q4 2026, Pennsylvania test and packaging up 10x from Q3 2026, the NXP Chandler campus from 2027) specifically because supply, not demand, is the stated industry constraint.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
€782M
Reported
2025 Q4
€981M
Reported
2026 Q1
€821M
Estimated
2026 Q2
€868M
Reported
Optical transport systemsData-centre interconnectOptical components
Sequential growth
+4.4%/qtr
decaying toward +2.0%
Deseasonalised Q2'25-Q2'26 trend, 4.4%/qtr; cross-checks the disclosed +20% constant-currency year on year.
Optical Networks
Latest: €1.63B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | €525M |
| 2025Q2 | €730M |
| 2025Q3 | €782M |
| 2025Q4 | €981M |
| 2026Q1 | €821M |
| 2026Q2 | €868M |
| 2026Q3E | €906M |
| 2026Q4E | €1.11B |
| 2027Q1E | €982M |
| 2027Q2E | €1.02B |
| 2027Q3E | €1.06B |
| 2027Q4E | €1.29B |
| 2028Q1E | €1.13B |
| 2028Q2E | €1.17B |
| 2028Q3E | €1.21B |
| 2028Q4E | €1.46B |
| 2029Q1E | €1.28B |
| 2029Q2E | €1.32B |
| 2029Q3E | €1.36B |
| 2029Q4E | €1.64B |
| 2030Q1E | €1.44B |
| 2030Q2E | €1.48B |
| 2030Q3E | €1.51B |
| 2030Q4E | €1.82B |
| 2031Q1E | €1.59B |
| 2031Q2E | €1.63B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Nokia has never published an Optical Networks operating margin. All three Network Infrastructure lines carry the parent segment's derived 12.74% trailing EBITDA margin, and the model differentiates their growth, which is disclosed, not their profit, which is not.
- US fab capacity is a supply story with no disclosed unit capacity, revenue per port or utilisation, so a capacity driver would have had to invent all three denominators; growth is the only evidenced driver here.
- 2026 Q1 is derived as first-half business-unit net sales less the disclosed second quarter: 1 689 - 868 = 821. The three Network Infrastructure lines so derived sum to the recast segment total of 1 829 to the euro.
- The 4.4% quarterly rate deliberately excludes 2025 Q1, which carries only one month of Infinera (closed 28 February 2025); fitting the raw six quarters gives 10.6% a quarter, which is an acquisition, not a trend.