NOK · Forward model · Optical Networks · Hotard 2028 case

Management's own three-year numbers, held to literally - and the surprise is that on growth they are a DOWNGRADE. The 19 November 2025 Capital Markets Day targets a 6-8% Network Infrastructure net sales CAGR for 2025-2028, including 10-12% for Optical and IP combined, with a 13-17% segment operating margin and comparable operating profit of EUR 2.7-3.2 billion by 2028. The base case, built from the disclosed quarterly rates and the 2026 guides, already runs Network Infrastructure at a 12.0% CAGR and Optical plus IP at 16.3% - well ABOVE those targets. So this case slows Optical and IP by 1.6 points a quarter, landing Optical plus IP at an 11.1% CAGR and Network Infrastructure at 7.9%, both at the top of their target ranges, and pays for it with the 3.4 margin points that take the segment to the 17% top of its margin range. FY2028 EBITDA of EUR 4 049 million is about EUR 3.3 billion of comparable operating profit after roughly EUR 0.75 billion of depreciation, at the top of the EUR 2.7-3.2 billion target. What it does NOT reach is today's price: at EUR 7.45 a share it is worth slightly LESS than the base case and 15.5% below the market, because at a 10x exit the multiple decides this model, not the operations.