NOK · Forward model
Revenue by vertical, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
CURRENCY. This model is entirely in EUROS, because Nokia reports in euros and its segment tables are in euros. The reference price is therefore the EUR 8.822 Nasdaq Helsinki close of 26 August 2026, NOT the USD 10.41 NYSE ADS close of the same session, and no figure anywhere in this spec has been converted. Two consequences to know about. First, data/companies/nok/series.json holds the same history in US dollars, converted at each quarter's own average ECB reference rate, so the basis quarter reads $5 599 million there against the EUR 4 815 million Nokia reported - the same quarter, with exchange-rate movement inside its growth rates that this model deliberately excludes. Second, the site's money formatter prints a dollar glyph in front of every figure on this page; read every one of them as euros. ACCOUNTING BASIS. Nokia publishes two operating profits for the same quarter and they disagree about whether it made money: reported EUR -50 million against comparable EUR +434 million in 2026 Q2, a gap that is mostly the EUR 390 million accelerated restructuring charge. All segment data, all guidance and all 2028 targets are on the COMPARABLE basis, so this model is too, on continuing operations after the Q2 2026 reclassification of Fixed Wireless Access CPE and Enterprise Campus Edge. The R40 card on the stock page is fed by the reported IFRS series and will not agree with this model's margin line. WHAT IS DISCLOSED AND WHAT IS NOT. Quarterly NET SALES are disclosed for all six business units, so splitting the two primary segments into their published lines copies a split rather than manufacturing one. PROFIT is disclosed only at segment level, so all three Network Infrastructure lines carry the parent segment's 12.74% derived EBITDA margin and the model differentiates their growth, which is disclosed, not their profit, which is not. The one exception is Technology Standards, whose 73.2% margin comes from its own FY2025 operating profit and depreciation under its former name, Nokia Technologies - which leaves Radio Networks and Core Software as an 8.97% residual. History starts at 2025 Q1 because Nokia recast 2024 to full year only on this segmentation; six quarters is the entire contiguous record. The 2026 Q1 column is derived as first half less the disclosed second quarter and reproduces the recast Network Infrastructure segment total to the euro. The six lines reconcile to reported consolidated net sales within EUR 13 million in every quarter, the gap being Group Common and Other net sales, inter-segment eliminations and two recast vintages. FREE CASH FLOW. The engine computes free cash flow as EBITDA less capital expenditure less tax; it carries no working capital, no restructuring cash outflow and no lease payments, all three of which Nokia's own free cash flow carries - which is exactly why Q2 2026 printed negative EUR 732 million against a EUR 434 million comparable operating profit. The projected EUR 911 million of second-half 2026 free cash flow is about 68% of the comparable operating profit those two quarters imply, inside Nokia's guided 55-75% conversion, but the model spreads it evenly while Nokia expects it as the Q2 working-capital outflow unwinds. No capital programme is encoded for the San Jose, Pennsylvania and Chandler build-outs: Nokia has disclosed no total cost for any of them, and a CapitalProgram needs one. Treat the 2027-2029 fab spend as unquantified downside to free cash flow.
Latest: $6.43B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4.29B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.44B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.69B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.01B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.43B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.81B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.90B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.29B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.07B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.15B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.24B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.72B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.40B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.48B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.56B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.13B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.72B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.80B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.88B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.53B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.04B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.12B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.92B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.35B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.43B |
What drives each segment
Optical Networks
Growth pathOptical transport and data-centre interconnect - the line the AI and cloud build-out actually buys. Net sales grew 20% year on year on a constant-currency basis in 2026 Q2 and Nokia is adding US manufacturing capacity (San Jose fab ramping in Q4 2026, Pennsylvania test and packaging up 10x from Q3 2026, the NXP Chandler campus from 2027) specifically because supply, not demand, is the stated industry constraint.
Latest: $1.63B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $525M |
| 2025Q2 | $730M |
| 2025Q3 | $782M |
| 2025Q4 | $981M |
| 2026Q1 | $821M |
| 2026Q2 | $868M |
| 2026Q3E | $906M |
| 2026Q4E | $1.11B |
| 2027Q1E | $982M |
| 2027Q2E | $1.02B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.06B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.29B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.13B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.17B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.21B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.46B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.28B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.32B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.36B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.64B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.44B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.48B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.51B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.82B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.59B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.63B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Nokia has never published an Optical Networks operating margin. All three Network Infrastructure lines carry the parent segment's derived 12.74% trailing EBITDA margin, and the model differentiates their growth, which is disclosed, not their profit, which is not.
- US fab capacity is a supply story with no disclosed unit capacity, revenue per port or utilisation, so a capacity driver would have had to invent all three denominators; growth is the only evidenced driver here.
- 2026 Q1 is derived as first-half business-unit net sales less the disclosed second quarter: 1 689 - 868 = 821. The three Network Infrastructure lines so derived sum to the recast segment total of 1 829 to the euro.
- The 4.4% quarterly rate deliberately excludes 2025 Q1, which carries only one month of Infinera (closed 28 February 2025); fitting the raw six quarters gives 10.6% a quarter, which is an acquisition, not a trend.
IP Networks
Growth pathIP routing and data-centre switching. Net sales grew 16% on a constant-currency basis in 2026 Q2 with, in Nokia's words, strong growth from AI and Cloud partially offset by a decline from Telecommunication Providers - two customer bases moving in opposite directions inside one reported line.
Latest: $1.16B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $646M |
| 2025Q2 | $588M |
| 2025Q3 | $578M |
| 2025Q4 | $783M |
| 2026Q1 | $626M |
| 2026Q2 | $679M |
| 2026Q3E | $704M |
| 2026Q4E | $975M |
| 2027Q1E | $754M |
| 2027Q2E | $778M |
| 2027Q3E | $803M |
| 2027Q4E | $1.11B |
| 2028Q1E | $851M |
| 2028Q2E | $875M |
| 2028Q3E | $898M |
| 2028Q4E | $1.23B |
| 2029Q1E | $945M |
| 2029Q2E | $969M |
| 2029Q3E | $992M |
| 2029Q4E | $1.36B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.04B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.06B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.09B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.48B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.13B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.16B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The telecom-provider half of this line is declining while the AI and cloud half compounds, and Nokia publishes no split between them - the single 3.7% trend rate is the net of two opposite movements.
- Margin is the Network Infrastructure parent rate, as for Optical and Fixed; Nokia's Q2 2026 segment note gives one gross profit, one operating profit and one depreciation figure for the whole segment.
- 2026 Q1 is derived as first-half less the disclosed second quarter: 1 305 - 679 = 626, part of the three-line sum that reproduces the recast segment total exactly.
Fixed Networks
Growth pathFibre access - passive optical network line terminals, fixed access software and premises equipment. The only Network Infrastructure line in decline: down 2% on a constant-currency basis in 2026 Q2 and down 8% across the first half, because Nokia is deliberately steering the line towards higher-margin products rather than defending volume.
Latest: $426M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $468M |
| 2025Q2 | $507M |
| 2025Q3 | $490M |
| 2025Q4 | $568M |
| 2026Q1 | $382M |
| 2026Q2 | $490M |
| 2026Q3E | $486M |
| 2026Q4E | $573M |
| 2027Q1E | $477M |
| 2027Q2E | $473M |
| 2027Q3E | $470M |
| 2027Q4E | $555M |
| 2028Q1E | $463M |
| 2028Q2E | $459M |
| 2028Q3E | $456M |
| 2028Q4E | $539M |
| 2029Q1E | $450M |
| 2029Q2E | $447M |
| 2029Q3E | $444M |
| 2029Q4E | $525M |
| 2030Q1E | $438M |
| 2030Q2E | $436M |
| 2030Q3E | $433M |
| 2030Q4E | $512M |
| 2031Q1E | $428M |
| 2031Q2E | $426M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Fixed Wireless Access CPE and Site Implementation and Outside Plant were taken out of this line from 1 January 2026, so the 2025 figures shown here are already on the narrowed definition and are not comparable with pre-2025 Fixed Networks disclosure.
- A managed decline can turn into an unmanaged one: the Capital Markets Day's 6-8% Network Infrastructure CAGR against a 10-12% Optical-plus-IP CAGR arithmetically requires this line to keep shrinking.
- 2026 Q1 is derived as first-half less the disclosed second quarter: 872 - 490 = 382, part of the three-line sum that reproduces the recast segment total exactly.
Radio Networks and Core Software
Growth pathMobile radio access across all 3GPP generations plus cloud-native mobile core and operations software - the volume half of Mobile Infrastructure, and the low-margin half. Net sales of EUR 2 272 million in 2026 Q2 grew about 4.7% year on year, with Radio Networks up 7% and Core Software up 1% on a constant-currency basis.
Latest: $2.69B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.20B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.17B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.36B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.18B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.12B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.27B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.30B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.13B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.35B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.37B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.39B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.26B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.44B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.46B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.48B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.37B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.52B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.54B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.56B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.48B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.60B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.61B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.63B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.57B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.67B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.69B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Radio Networks and Core Software are held as ONE vertical because neither has a disclosed margin and their measured Q4 seasonal factors are indistinguishable at 1.292 and 1.276; splitting them would differentiate nothing the disclosure supports.
- Every quarter of this line is DERIVED, not disclosed: it is Mobile Infrastructure net sales less the disclosed Technology Standards line. The 8.97% margin is likewise a residual - Mobile Infrastructure trailing EBITDA less the Technology Standards EBITDA implied by its disclosed FY2025 margin.
- That residual is the honest headline of this model: once the 73% licensing margin is removed, Nokia's mobile hardware business earns a single-digit EBITDA margin on roughly half of group revenue.
Technology Standards
Growth pathNokia's patent portfolio, licensed into handsets, automotive, consumer electronics, IoT and multimedia. Formerly reported as Nokia Technologies, an identity confirmed by identical FY2025 net sales of EUR 1 501 million under both labels. It is about 8% of group net sales and about 39% of group EBITDA, at a 73.2% EBITDA margin.
Latest: $457M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $369M |
| 2025Q2 | $357M |
| 2025Q3 | $391M |
| 2025Q4 | $384M |
| 2026Q1 | $385M |
| 2026Q2 | $407M |
| 2026Q3E | $410M |
| 2026Q4E | $413M |
| 2027Q1E | $416M |
| 2027Q2E | $419M |
| 2027Q3E | $422M |
| 2027Q4E | $425M |
| 2028Q1E | $428M |
| 2028Q2E | $430M |
| 2028Q3E | $433M |
| 2028Q4E | $435M |
| 2029Q1E | $438M |
| 2029Q2E | $440M |
| 2029Q3E | $442M |
| 2029Q4E | $444M |
| 2030Q1E | $447M |
| 2030Q2E | $449M |
| 2030Q3E | $451M |
| 2030Q4E | $453M |
| 2031Q1E | $455M |
| 2031Q2E | $457M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- ASEASONAL by evidence, not by omission: this line's measured Q4 amplitude is 0.961 - Q4 sits BELOW the Q1-Q3 level - because licensing revenue follows when agreements are signed and when catch-up is recognised, not carrier year-end budgets.
- The 73.2% EBITDA margin is derived from disclosure: FY2025 Nokia Technologies operating profit of 1 059 on net sales of 1 501, plus that segment's disclosed FY2025 depreciation and amortisation of 40.
- Quarterly operating margin on this line has ranged from 65.1% in Q4 2025 to 78.5% in FY2024 with revenue mix; the constant 73.2% carried forward is an annual average, not a quarterly observation.
- Revenue arrives in steps when agreements are signed: a single large renewal moves a quarter by more than the whole line's annual trend, which is why the growth rate is deliberately below the fitted one.
Portfolio Businesses
Growth pathSite Implementation and Outside Plant plus Microwave Radio - the units Nokia has said are not core and for which it targets to conclude on a future direction during 2026. Fixed Wireless Access CPE and Enterprise Campus Edge were moved out of this segment into discontinued operations in Q2 2026, so the perimeter has already changed once inside the model's own history.
Latest: $77M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $80M |
| 2025Q2 | $89M |
| 2025Q3 | $97M |
| 2025Q4 | $113M |
| 2026Q1 | $100M |
| 2026Q2 | $94M |
| 2026Q3E | $93M |
| 2026Q4E | $91M |
| 2027Q1E | $90M |
| 2027Q2E | $89M |
| 2027Q3E | $88M |
| 2027Q4E | $87M |
| 2028Q1E | $86M |
| 2028Q2E | $85M |
| 2028Q3E | $84M |
| 2028Q4E | $83M |
| 2029Q1E | $82M |
| 2029Q2E | $82M |
| 2029Q3E | $81M |
| 2029Q4E | $80M |
| 2030Q1E | $80M |
| 2030Q2E | $79M |
| 2030Q3E | $78M |
| 2030Q4E | $78M |
| 2031Q1E | $77M |
| 2031Q2E | $77M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- ASEASONAL by materiality: the measured Q4 amplitude is 1.129 on a single window, and a 13% Q4 lift on 2.0% of group net sales moves the group by 0.26% - below the noise in the group index itself.
- NO disposal is modelled. If the remaining units are sold, this line disappears and the model is about 2% too high on group revenue from that date on.
- The 3.7% EBITDA margin is derived from a trailing comparable operating profit of EUR 3 million plus about EUR 12 million of segment depreciation on EUR 404 million of net sales - a rounding-scale number on a rounding-scale line.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the basis quarter actually printed
What the company itself says about the constraint
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The order book and what it is made of
The margin the segment is targeting
Hotard 2028 case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Hotard 2028 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The target set, as published
- Nov 19, 2025 Nokia is introducing a new long-term financial target to achieve comparable operating profit of EUR 2.7 billion to EUR 3.2 billion by 2028
- Nov 19, 2025 Nokia targets 6-8% net sales CAGR during 2025-2028. This includes a 10-12% target for the combined Optical Networks and IP Networks
- Nov 19, 2025 Network Infrastructure operating margin: 13% to 17% by 2028
What management said about this year
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $9.30B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $26.90B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $4.62B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 10.0x |
| Terminal value | $46.16B |
| Discounted at 9.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $30.00B |
| Enterprise value | $39.30B |
| Net cash | $2.78B |
| Equity value | $42.07B |
| Shares | 5.60B |
| Fair value per share | $7.51 |
| Against the current price of $8.82 | -15% |
The exit multiple decides this model, so it is worth being explicit about the arithmetic. At the EUR 8.822 Helsinki close of 26 August 2026 and 5 598 645 thousand shares, Nokia is a EUR 49.4 billion market capitalisation and a EUR 46.6 billion enterprise value against EUR 2 917 million of trailing COMPARABLE EBITDA - 16.0x, and 2.33x trailing net sales. Its own 2028 target is comparable operating profit of EUR 2.7-3.2 billion; add the roughly EUR 0.7 billion of comparable depreciation the business currently carries and that is EUR 3.4-3.9 billion of 2028 EBITDA, so today's enterprise value is already 12-14x a target management calls a separate long-term ambition and explicitly not part of its outlook. The base case exits at 10x, which is what a networking incumbent earns once it is no longer being priced on an order book, and it sits below the current multiple by design - exiting at 16x would be calibrating the model onto today's price. The bear case uses 8x on a 10% discount rate and the bull 13x on 8.5%. No peer multiple is asserted: none was verified against a primary document, so the exit rests on Nokia's own trading history and its own 2028 target, both recorded here. Move this number before touching any growth rate.
Read the other way round: at $8.82 the market is paying 12.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Optical Networks | IP Networks | Fixed Networks | Radio Networks and Core Software | Technology Standards | Portfolio Businesses | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $906M | $704M | $486M | $2.30B | $410M | $93M | $4.90B | +4% | $753M | $201M | $414M | +13 | $405M |
| 2026 Q4E | $1.11B | $975M | $573M | $3.13B | $413M | $91M | $6.29B | +5% | $915M | $252M | $497M | +13 | $476M |
| 2027 Q1E | $982M | $754M | $477M | $2.35B | $416M | $90M | $5.07B | +14% | $806M | $199M | $456M | +23 | $427M |
| 2027 Q2E | $1.02B | $778M | $473M | $2.37B | $419M | $89M | $5.15B | +7% | $831M | $199M | $474M | +16 | $435M |
| 2027 Q3E | $1.06B | $803M | $470M | $2.39B | $422M | $88M | $5.24B | +7% | $855M | $198M | $492M | +16 | $442M |
| 2027 Q4E | $1.29B | $1.11B | $555M | $3.26B | $425M | $87M | $6.72B | +7% | $1.04B | $251M | $589M | +16 | $517M |
| 2028 Q1E | $1.13B | $851M | $463M | $2.44B | $428M | $86M | $5.40B | +7% | $899M | $199M | $525M | +16 | $452M |
| 2028 Q2E | $1.17B | $875M | $459M | $2.46B | $430M | $85M | $5.48B | +6% | $920M | $199M | $541M | +16 | $455M |
| 2028 Q3E | $1.21B | $898M | $456M | $2.48B | $433M | $84M | $5.56B | +6% | $940M | $200M | $555M | +16 | $457M |
| 2028 Q4E | $1.46B | $1.23B | $539M | $3.37B | $435M | $83M | $7.13B | +6% | $1.14B | $253M | $663M | +15 | $534M |
| 2029 Q1E | $1.28B | $945M | $450M | $2.52B | $438M | $82M | $5.72B | +6% | $977M | $201M | $582M | +16 | $459M |
| 2029 Q2E | $1.32B | $969M | $447M | $2.54B | $440M | $82M | $5.80B | +6% | $995M | $202M | $595M | +16 | $459M |
| 2029 Q3E | $1.36B | $992M | $444M | $2.56B | $442M | $81M | $5.88B | +6% | $1.01B | $203M | $607M | +16 | $459M |
| 2029 Q4E | $1.64B | $1.36B | $525M | $3.48B | $444M | $80M | $7.53B | +6% | $1.22B | $258M | $724M | +15 | $536M |
| 2030 Q1E | $1.44B | $1.04B | $438M | $2.60B | $447M | $80M | $6.04B | +6% | $1.05B | $206M | $631M | +16 | $456M |
| 2030 Q2E | $1.48B | $1.06B | $436M | $2.61B | $449M | $79M | $6.12B | +5% | $1.06B | $207M | $642M | +16 | $455M |
| 2030 Q3E | $1.51B | $1.09B | $433M | $2.63B | $451M | $78M | $6.20B | +5% | $1.08B | $209M | $652M | +16 | $452M |
| 2030 Q4E | $1.82B | $1.48B | $512M | $3.57B | $453M | $78M | $7.92B | +5% | $1.30B | $265M | $778M | +15 | $528M |
| 2031 Q1E | $1.59B | $1.13B | $428M | $2.67B | $455M | $77M | $6.35B | +5% | $1.11B | $212M | $673M | +16 | $447M |
| 2031 Q2E | $1.63B | $1.16B | $426M | $2.69B | $457M | $77M | $6.43B | +5% | $1.12B | $214M | $683M | +16 | $444M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | all | $7.52 | Model created from the verified research brief on the 2026 Q2 business-unit net sales tables, in EUR on Nokia's comparable segment basis. Base case exits at 10x terminal EBITDA on a 9% discount rate. |