NOK · Forward model · Optical Networks · Bear case

The order book converts slower than management's around half in twelve months, and the restructuring keeps eating the result. The basis quarter is the evidence: a REPORTED operating loss of EUR 50 million, free cash flow of negative EUR 732 million, net cash down EUR 1 012 million in three months to EUR 2 776 million, and a 2026 restructuring assumption raised mid-year to EUR 800 million of charges with EUR 700-800 million of cash behind it. Half-year free cash flow is negative EUR 104 million against positive EUR 809 million a year earlier, Fixed Networks is already shrinking, and Nokia's own risk factors lead with competitive intensity expected to continue at a high level. Here Optical and IP grow at roughly half the disclosed rate, Fixed loses another half point a quarter, margins land a point and a half lower - which puts the 2028 Network Infrastructure operating margin near 12%, missing the bottom of the 13-17% target - and the exit is 8x on a 10% discount rate. It is worth EUR 5.07 a share.