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NOK · Forward model · Radio Networks and Core Software · Bull case

What has to happen in Radio Networks and Core Software

Model as of

This page changes Radio Networks and Core Software inside the complete NOK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NOK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value €11.23 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue €2.69B 38% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution €3.37B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The AI and cloud order book converts on management's own schedule and the new capacity arrives to meet it. Q2 2026 order intake was EUR 2.8 billion, net sales to those customers doubled to EUR 446 million (+105% constant currency), Optical grew 20% and IP 16%, IP order intake growth was particularly strong on Q1 design wins, and Nokia states the constraint is supply rather than demand - which is why the San Jose fab ramps in Q4 2026, Pennsylvania test and packaging goes up 10x from Q3 2026 and the NXP Chandler campus is under a definitive agreement. Here Optical and IP each run a point a quarter faster, the three Network Infrastructure lines carry 3.4 points more margin - which takes the segment's 2028 operating margin to about 17%, the top of its 13-17% target - and the exit is 13x on an 8.5% discount rate. It is worth EUR 11.23 a share.

Radio Networks and Core Software

Basis quarter€2.27B
Final quarter€2.69B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix38%

Mobile radio access across all 3GPP generations plus cloud-native mobile core and operations software - the volume half of Mobile Infrastructure, and the low-margin half. Net sales of EUR 2 272 million in 2026 Q2 grew about 4.7% year on year, with Radio Networks up 7% and Core Software up 1% on a constant-currency basis.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 €2.36B Estimated
2025 Q4 €3.18B Estimated
2026 Q1 €2.12B Estimated
2026 Q2 €2.27B Estimated
Radio access products and servicesCloud-native mobile core softwareAI-driven operations, analytics and security software
Sequential growth +1.1%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Deseasonalised Q2'25-Q2'26 trend of 1.17%/qtr, matching the +4.7% year on year on the raw line.
Radio Networks and Core Software

Latest: €2.69B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 €2.20B
2025Q2 €2.17B
2025Q3 €2.36B
2025Q4 €3.18B
2026Q1 €2.12B
2026Q2 €2.27B
2026Q3E €2.30B
2026Q4E €3.13B
2027Q1E €2.35B
2027Q2E €2.37B
2027Q3E €2.39B
2027Q4E €3.26B
2028Q1E €2.44B
2028Q2E €2.46B
2028Q3E €2.48B
2028Q4E €3.37B
2029Q1E €2.52B
2029Q2E €2.54B
2029Q3E €2.56B
2029Q4E €3.48B
2030Q1E €2.60B
2030Q2E €2.61B
2030Q3E €2.63B
2030Q4E €3.57B
2031Q1E €2.67B
2031Q2E €2.69B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Radio Networks and Core Software are held as ONE vertical because neither has a disclosed margin and their measured Q4 seasonal factors are indistinguishable at 1.292 and 1.276; splitting them would differentiate nothing the disclosure supports.
  • Every quarter of this line is DERIVED, not disclosed: it is Mobile Infrastructure net sales less the disclosed Technology Standards line. The 8.97% margin is likewise a residual - Mobile Infrastructure trailing EBITDA less the Technology Standards EBITDA implied by its disclosed FY2025 margin.
  • That residual is the honest headline of this model: once the 73% licensing margin is removed, Nokia's mobile hardware business earns a single-digit EBITDA margin on roughly half of group revenue.
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