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NOK · Forward model · Fixed Networks · Bull case

What has to happen in Fixed Networks

Model as of

This page changes Fixed Networks inside the complete NOK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NOK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value €11.23 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue €426M 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution €1.20B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The AI and cloud order book converts on management's own schedule and the new capacity arrives to meet it. Q2 2026 order intake was EUR 2.8 billion, net sales to those customers doubled to EUR 446 million (+105% constant currency), Optical grew 20% and IP 16%, IP order intake growth was particularly strong on Q1 design wins, and Nokia states the constraint is supply rather than demand - which is why the San Jose fab ramps in Q4 2026, Pennsylvania test and packaging goes up 10x from Q3 2026 and the NXP Chandler campus is under a definitive agreement. Here Optical and IP each run a point a quarter faster, the three Network Infrastructure lines carry 3.4 points more margin - which takes the segment's 2028 operating margin to about 17%, the top of its 13-17% target - and the exit is 13x on an 8.5% discount rate. It is worth EUR 11.23 a share.

Fixed Networks

Basis quarter€490M
Final quarter€426M
Implied CAGR−3%
Final revenue mix6%

Fibre access - passive optical network line terminals, fixed access software and premises equipment. The only Network Infrastructure line in decline: down 2% on a constant-currency basis in 2026 Q2 and down 8% across the first half, because Nokia is deliberately steering the line towards higher-margin products rather than defending volume.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 €490M Reported
2025 Q4 €568M Reported
2026 Q1 €382M Estimated
2026 Q2 €490M Reported
Fibre access / PONOptical line terminalsFixed access software
Sequential growth −0.9%/qtr decaying toward −0.5% Deseasonalised Q2'25-Q2'26 trend of -0.86%/qtr; consistent with the disclosed -2% quarter and -8% first half.
Fixed Networks

Latest: €426M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 €468M
2025Q2 €507M
2025Q3 €490M
2025Q4 €568M
2026Q1 €382M
2026Q2 €490M
2026Q3E €486M
2026Q4E €573M
2027Q1E €477M
2027Q2E €473M
2027Q3E €470M
2027Q4E €555M
2028Q1E €463M
2028Q2E €459M
2028Q3E €456M
2028Q4E €539M
2029Q1E €450M
2029Q2E €447M
2029Q3E €444M
2029Q4E €525M
2030Q1E €438M
2030Q2E €436M
2030Q3E €433M
2030Q4E €512M
2031Q1E €428M
2031Q2E €426M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Fixed Wireless Access CPE and Site Implementation and Outside Plant were taken out of this line from 1 January 2026, so the 2025 figures shown here are already on the narrowed definition and are not comparable with pre-2025 Fixed Networks disclosure.
  • A managed decline can turn into an unmanaged one: the Capital Markets Day's 6-8% Network Infrastructure CAGR against a 10-12% Optical-plus-IP CAGR arithmetically requires this line to keep shrinking.
  • 2026 Q1 is derived as first-half less the disclosed second quarter: 872 - 490 = 382, part of the three-line sum that reproduces the recast segment total exactly.
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